Hope, Math, and Attrition

The NFL trade deadline is now past.  That is significant for the quarterback situation.  All replacement quarterbacks for the rest of the season must come from the pool of free agent QB's.

Below is a list of free agent QB's on the market. A few QB's have already been signed from the list.  Those names are in blue strikethrough font.

Every time a starting QB or backup goes down to injury, one of the players on this list will be signed. It is attrition warfare, a numbers game.

EDIT:  I cleaned up the table.  No team is going to sign someone without some recent tape to evaluate, so I removed anyone who did not play in the preseason.

The remaining free agents are sorted by QBR.  That's an eye opener.

If you are wondering what is different this year from last year, it's simple.  Last year Tim did not play in the preseason.  He was not even on the list.  This year he is.  And he is pretty high up, if you go by objective standards.

Name	Last	Current	Camp	NFL Exp	Preseason QBR
Michael Vick	NYJ	PIT	1 week	Yes	113.5
Thaddeus Lewis	CLE	PHI	full	Yes	56.8
Josh Johnson	NYJ	IND	full	Yes	80.5
T.J. Yates	ATL	HOU	full	Yes	64.6
Matt Flynn	NYG	NO	full	Yes	111.9
Kellen Moore	DET	DAL	full	Yes	?
Ryan Mallett	HOU	BAL	full	Yes
Keith Wenning	CIN	CIN	full	No	22.6
Stephen Morris	JAX	IND	full	No	79.7
BJ Daniels	SEA	HOU	as WR	No	6/14
Alex Tanney	TEN	TEN	full	No	125.6
Josh Freeman	MIA	IND	full	Yes	43.1
Ryan Lindley	NE	IND	partial	Yes	57.0
Stephen Morris	JAX	IND	full	No
Christian Ponder	DEN		full	Yes	81.3
Tim Tebow	PHI		full	Yes	90.7
Phillip Sims	ARI		full		88.8
Jeff Tuel	JAC	JAC ps	full	Yes	71.4
McLeod Bethel-Thompson	MIA	SF ps	full	Yes	43.9
Mike Kafka	MIN		full	limited	109.5 (9/13)
Bryn Renner	BAL	TEN ps	full		91.1
Jake Heaps	NYJ		partial		39.6
Bryan Bennett	IND		full		15.4
Cody Fajardo	OAK		full		4.2

Disgust

Also self explanatory.  

Feel free to discuss.

WTF?

Title is self explanatory.  Please discuss.

The Tebow effect, in 4 pictures.

This series of pictures perfectly captures the hidden benefit of Tim Tebow to the rushing game ... even when he does not run.

2nd and goal from the 1 yard line.  Tim Tebow (3) has just handed off to Kevin Monongai.  Ravens OLB #45 Brennan Beyer (1) charges into the backfield unblocked.  Kevin Monongai (2) is directly in front of him with the ball (arrow).

Beyer (1) runs right past Monongai (2) and the ball (arrow), and makes a beeline for Tim Tebow (3).

Eagles Practice Schedule

Ok, training camp is almost here.  I'll be traveling for next few days, so I wanted to get the practice schedule up.  Below are the first 3 weeks of preseason.  All practices are open to the media.  After the second game, they go to their normal season practice schedule and media access is limited.

• Saturday, Aug. 1: Report day
• Sunday, Aug. 2: 11:30 a.m.
• Monday, Aug. 3: 11:30 a.m.
• Tuesday, Aug. 4: Noon
• Wednesday, Aug. 5: Day off
• Thursday, Aug. 6: 11:30 a.m.
• Friday, Aug. 7: 11:30 a.m.
• Saturday, Aug. 8: 11:30 a.m.
• Sunday, Aug. 9: Noon
• Monday, Aug. 10: Day off
• Tuesday, Aug. 11: 11:30 a.m.
• Wednesday, Aug. 12: 11:30 a.m.
• Thursday, Aug. 13: 11:30 a.m.
• Friday, Aug. 14: 11:30 a.m.
• Saturday, Aug. 15: Walk-through, TBA
• Sunday, Aug. 16: Preseason game vs. Colts, 1 p.m.
• Monday, Aug. 17: Day off
• Tuesday, Aug. 18: 11:30 a.m.
• Wednesday, Aug. 19: Joint practice with Ravens, noon.
• Thursday, Aug. 20: Joint practice with Ravens, noon.
• Friday, Aug. 21: Joint practice with Ravens, noon.
• Saturday, Aug. 22: Preseason game vs. Ravens, 7 p.m.

OTA coverage

Well, after 2 years in hiding, today we saw the new Tebow released into the wild for public view.

Eagles offseason

Here is a pretty good summary of the Eagles OTA schedule:

http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2015/4/2/8336865/philadelphia-eagles-offseason-schedule-2015-otas-minicamp-training-camp-dates-april-20

A couple of observations:

A Plea for Sanity on Tim Tebow

Unless you are marooned on a desert island, or refuse to join Twitter on moral grounds, you know that Tim Tebow will sign with the Philadelphia Eagles today. If you did not know, you soon will. ESPN will broadcast Tebow footage on continuous loop, airplanes will tow banners over urban areas, and horseback riders will crisscross the countryside shouting the news to the last few digital holdouts. Even the Unabomber could not avoid this news.

The news media refers to Tebow as "polarizing", which translates as "some people cannot stand that others admire him".  That probably telegraphs my point of view here. But I think Tebow fans and Tebow haters can all agree on one thing: the constant, intense scrutiny of all things Tebow has been by far the most infuriating thing about his career. Meanwhile NFL media insiders solemnly inform us that no team wants to deal with "the circus", by which they mean all reportage except for their own.

So here is a plea to everyone involved: turn the volume down. Place all electronic devices on mute. Let the man play football and succeed or fail on his own merits.

Tebow to Eagles Discussion

First of all:

People have been talking since about a year before Chip Kelly even joined the NFL what a great fit Tim would be for his system.  It's such a no brainer, it's amazing that it took this long to happen.  But looking back, it could be that Tim's forced hiatus was the best thing that could have happened to him.

The best thing about this, besides the fact that it happened, is the timing.  Tim will be on board for the full offseason. That gives him a fair shot to learn the offense and compete. It was critically important that he get on a roster and start studying the playbook.  

I'm of the opinion that his late start with the Pats (June 12th) was a major factor in his struggles.  He clearly did not look comfortable with the plays.  We all know he has dyslexia so studying is a challenge.  The more time he has to find ways to visualize plays and get reps, the better chance he has.

Discuss!

Perseverance!

Since Tim may be sending hidden messages, here's a reminder of the one he sent last year at this time.  Still working with Tom House, so I think he means what he says:

Tebow 2015 discussion thread

Nothing profound to say, just a new thread to talk about the new season.  Bob, start us off with your great news about the Antonio Brown interview, please.

Why Tim Tebow can't get a Job as a Backup QB

Being a Tebow fan is an exercise in frustration. Two years and seven months ago, we were riding high. Tim had just completed one of the most exciting NFL seasons ever, John Elway declared he had earned the starting QB job, and fans everywhere eagerly anticipated watching him play again. Three seasons later, we are still waiting to watch him play again.

The most maddening aspect of the experience has been watching quarterbacks who are clearly worse than Tebow get signed to backup roster spots. Take Blaine Gabbert. By any objective measure Gabbert is worse than Tebow. His career QB Rating is 66.4, while Tebow's QBR is 75.3. Yet the 49ers traded for Gabbert to be their backup QB. That is just one example.

Tebow team tracker: end of preseason

A few weeks ago I tried to itemize possible Teams for Tebow headed into training camp.  With preseason games over and the regular season about to start, let's see where things stand, and how some of my predictions played out.

Tebow to the Rams?

By now you probably know that the Rams lost starting QB Sam Bradford to a season-ending knee injury.  The news just leaked out a few hours ago, and speculation has already started about a replacement.  Predictably, "sign Tebow" tweets and blog posts have started to appear, along with the usual scornful responses.

I have held back from getting excited at previous openings, but this might be the right time to watch closely.  The Rams' circumstances offer 4 good reasons to make a Tebow redemption shot possible:

Tebow, EJ, and the Sanchize Effect

In the wake of a particularly egregious performance by all 3 of the Bills quarterbacks on roster, many fans are calling for Tebow to be brought in as a backup.

Tim would be a very good system fit at Buffalo, and has a similar playing style to EJ.  He is clearly better than Jeff Tuel or Thad Lewis by any objective or subjective standard.  Regardless of this, it is extremely unlikely that the Bills will consider signing Tim Tebow in the first half of the season.  The reason is the Sanchize Effect.

Possible Teams for Tebow - 2014 Preseason Analysis

Like many of you, I am dumbstruck that Tim Tebow may not get another chance in the NFL.  However, I have tried to keep the faith and not worry too much.  As General Patton said, "never take counsel of your fears".

Personally, I believe he will get one last shot.  I believe this mainly because he has a strong network of mentors and very influential agents.  They would have told him not to waste his time and money training if he did not have at least a reasonable chance of getting on a roster somewhere. But where?

Let's see this every day!

Note the writing on the wall behind him. #Perseverance Sending a message!

Tebow fans - what to watch for on draft night

At this point it is awfully hard to predict where Tim Tebow might get another shot. Evidently nobody is willing to commit to him as a starter or primary backup. His best hope is to get into training camp as a 3rd stringer and hope his improved throwing motion impresses. Coaches love training camp competition, and Tim is nothing if not a competitor.

There are not a lot of openings right now, as the QB roster tracker shows. Any team looking to the free agent market has already moved. The remaining QB-needy teams are counting on the draft.

However, there are more needy teams than there are highly regarded QB prospects. Some teams will lose the game of musical chairs and wind up with a low rated pick or no QB picks. Even those who draft a highly rated QB face risk; there are no sure things this year.

With that in mind, here are some things to watch for that might signal an opportunity for Tim:

NFL Quarterback Tracker

Current Roster

teams in red are reportedly interested in drafting a QB

Team	Starter	Backup	Other
Arizona Cardinals	Carson Palmer	Drew Stanton, Logan Thomas	Ryan Lindley
Atlanta Falcons	Matt Ryan	Dominique Davis	Sean Renfree
Baltimore Ravens	Joe Flacco	Tyrod Taylor	Keith Wenning
Buffalo Bills	EJ Manuel	Thad Lewis	Jeff Tuel
Carolina Panthers	Cam Newton	Derek Anderson	Joe Webb
Chicago Bears	Jay Cutler	Jordan Palmer, David Fales	Jerrod Johnson
Cincinnati Bengals	Andy Dalton	Jason Campbell, AJ McCarron	Josh Johnson
Cleveland Browns	Johnny Manziel	Brian Hoyer	Alex Tanney, Vince Young, Tyler Thigpen
Dallas Cowboys	Tony Romo	Kyle Orton	Brandon Weeden, Caleb Hanie
Denver Broncos	Peyton Manning	Brock Osweiler	Zac Dysert
Detroit Lions	Matthew Stafford	Kellen Moore	Dan Orlovsky
Green Bay Packers	Aaron Rodgers	Matt Flynn	Scott Tolzein
Houston Texans	Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum	Tom Savage	TJ Yates
Indianapolis Colts	Andrew Luck	Matt Hasselbeck
Jacksonville Jaguars	Blake Bortles	Chad Henne	Ricky Stanzi, Matt Scott
Kansas City Chiefs	Alex Smith	Chase Daniel, Aaron Murray	Tyler Bray
Miami Dolphins	Ryan Tannehill	Matt Moore	Pat Devlin, Jordan Rodgers
Minnesota Vikings	Teddy Bridgewater	Matt Cassel	Christian Ponder
New England Patriots	Tom Brady	Ryan Mallett	Jimmy Garoppolo
New Orleans Saints	Drew Brees	Luke McKown	Ryan Griffin
New York Giants	Eli Manning	Josh Freeman	Curtis Painter, Ryan Nassib
New York Jets	Geno Smith	Michael Vick, Tajh Boyd	Matt Simms
Oakland Raiders	Matt Schaub, Derek Carr	Matt McGloin	Trent Edwards
Philadelphia Eagles	Nick Foles	Mark Sanchez	Matt Barkley
Pittsburgh Steelers	Ben Roethlisberger	Landry Jones	Bruce Gradowski
San Diego Chargers	Philip Rivers	Kellen Clemens	Brad Sorensen
San Francisco 49ers	Colin Kaepernick	Blaine Gabbert
Seattle Seahawks	Russell Wilson	Tarvaris Jackson	Terrelle Pryor, BJ Daniels
St. Louis Rams	Sam Bradford	Shaun Hill, Garrett Gilbert	Austin Davis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Josh McCown	Mike Glennon	Mike Kafka
Tennessee Titans	Jake Locker	Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger	Tyler Wilson
Washington Redskins	Robert Griffin III	Kirk Cousins	Colt McCoy

Available

Free Agents

Tim Tebow

Seneca Wallace

Rex Grossman

Kevin Kolb

Rusty Smith

David Gerrard

Zac Robinson

Brady Quinn

Draft Picks	Projected	Taken	By
Johnny Manziel	1	1	Cleveland
Blake Bortles	1	1	Jacksonville
Teddy Bridgewater	1	1	Minnesota
Derek Carr	1-2	2	Oakland
Jimmy Garapolo	2	2	New England
Logan Thomas	5-6	4	Arizona
Tom Savage	2	4	Houston
Aaron Murray	4	5	Kansas City
AJ McCarron	4	5	Cincinnati
Zack Mettenberger	3-4	6	Tennessee
David Fales	6	6	Chicago
Keith Wenning	6-7	6	Baltimore
Tajh Boyd	7	6	New York Jets
Garrett Gilbert	np	6	St Louis

Analysis

There are 4 teams with only 2 QBs on roster: New England, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Baltimore. Each of these teams has a well-established starter that the team is fully committed to. Consequently, none of these teams are rumored to be overly interested in drafting a QB this year. No team goes into training camp with just 2 QBs. That means that each of these teams is likely to pick up at least one free agent QB between now and mid-June.

Teams for Tebow

With 6 weeks until the NFL draft, most teams are posturing to fill their biggest needs.  No need is bigger than quarterback, so those teams with an unsettled situation at that position are focused on fixing it.  Their actions can give some insight into where Tim Tebow might have a shot at a roster spot going into training camp.  As Yogi Berra said, "predictions are hard, especially about the future".  My prediction: the Browns and Patriots are Tim's best and perhaps only shots.