Possible Teams for Tebow - 2014 Preseason Analysis

Like many of you, I am dumbstruck that Tim Tebow may not get another chance in the NFL.  However, I have tried to keep the faith and not worry too much.  As General Patton said, "never take counsel of your fears".

Personally, I believe he will get one last shot.  I believe this mainly because he has a strong network of mentors and very influential agents.  They would have told him not to waste his time and money training if he did not have at least a reasonable chance of getting on a roster somewhere. But where?


In considering that question, let's first establish a few facts/assumptions that may help clarify our analysis.

1. No team currently has Tim in their plans.  Seems rather obvious. If any team wanted him, they would have signed him before camp started.  I say this because every so often someone writes "Hey, Tim would be a great fit for team X!"  Unfortunately, if team X agreed, Tim would have been signed by now.  Nobody waits until training camp to build their roster.
2. Tim's only chance will be when someone's plans change.  This follows from #1.  As the efficient market hypothesis would observe, Tim's NFL value already reflects all known information.  Therefore the only thing that can change his situation is unknown information, eg surprises.
3. Surprises will happen, and plans will change.  By the midpoint of last season, 9 teams changed their starting quarterback due to injury or abject failure.  There will be further QB changes this year, probably on the same general scale.
4. Both Tim and the prospective team must believe it is a good fit.

I have had some good discussion about #4 with fellow Tebow fans.  Many do not believe he has the luxury of being selective at this point in his career.  I understand that viewpoint, but I also think it violates Pattons' maxim.  I believe another failed experiment would decisively end Tim's chances forever.  Therefore he needs to be very careful to go to a supportive environment where a team is A) willing to let him develop, and B) not misuse him.

A good example of a situation to stay away from would be the Tyler Wilson signing this weekend.  Let's be honest; the moment that Jason Campbell recovers from his shoulder bruise, Wilson is going to get kicked to the curb.   Tim would be foolish to jump into a situation like that.

Ok, let's look at where Tim might find an opportunity due to changing circumstances.

Impossible Teams

We can rule out some teams where Tim will never go, because of baggage with key executives.  There are 3 that I think are inarguable: the Broncos (Elway), the Jets (Ryan), and the Jaguars (Caldwell).

Unlikely Teams

Some teams are unlikely to consider Tim regardless of circumstances this season.  If Tim is a poor fit for an offensive system, a team would be more likely to look elsewhere.  Also, if Tim's presence would undermine a starting QB that they are invested in the success of, a team would be less likely to risk his presence.

Poor System Fit

Tim is probably not going to go to a team with a system that does not fit him.  Now note I am not arguing, per #4, that Tim should decline an offer because of system fit.  To the contrary, I am speculating that Tim is not likely to get an offer from such a team in the first place.

In considering system fit, most Tebow fans look first for a running QB and the read option, but that is only half of the equation.  The other half is the style of passing attack used.  Many teams now use the West Coast Offense, which is:

... characterized by short, horizontal passing routes in lieu of running plays to "stretch out" defenses, opening up the potential for long runs or long passes. ...

The West Coast offense requires a quarterback who throws extremely accurately, and often blindly, very close to opposing players. In addition, it requires the quarterback to be able to quickly pick the best one of five receivers to throw to, certainly much more quickly than in previously used systems.

Tim Tebow is not known for being especially quick or accurate.  He is a much better fit for a traditional offense, where teams use play-action runs to draw in the offense and then strike with deep passes.  That offensive system requires a quarterback who can manage a running attack and has a strong arm for deep passes, two of Tim's strengths.

So don't get mesmerized by read option.  Look at the underlying passing system too, which may not be a good fit for Tim.  The following teams use the West Coast system:  Bengals, 49ers, Browns, Bears, Chiefs, Jets, Colts, Redskins, Giants, and Ravens.  That makes all them less likely to sign Tim, in my book.

The Sanchez Effect

Tim is also probably not going to go to a team where there is any danger of him undermining a starting QB that the team is invested in.  Call this the Mark Sanchez effect.  Tim is just too big a star and too strong a leader to fit in well as a backup QB, unless it is behind a starting QB whose status and self assurance are unassailable.  Unfortunately, that rules out many teams with young stars, such as Colin Kapernick, Russell Wilson, or Cam Newton.  Note that case of a career-ending injury to one of them, all bets are off.

Tim can really only back up a Hall of Fame QB.  That's why New England worked.  Tom Brady wasn't the least bit threatened by Tim.  Drew Brees and Aaron Brady would not be threatened either.  Other than that, it is probably a pretty short list.

Possible Teams

So if only surprises can create an opening for Tim, how do we identify where his shot might come?  Let's look at some possible scenarios where evolving circumstances might cause an opportunity to emerge.

Patriots

I have long indulged in wishful thinking that Tim might find his way back to the Patriots.  The general theory goes like this: the Pats want to get some value out of Ryan Mallett by trading him before he becomes a free agent.  The most likely trade partner would be Houston, because new head coach Bill O'Brien loves Mallett.  Houston is currently the laughingstock of the NFL owing to O'Brien's failure to address the quarterback situation.  O'Brien is either nuts, or he has a fallback plan.  I'm hoping for the latter, and hoping it involves Ryan Mallett.

If the Pats do get an attactive offer for Mallett, they will need to bring in a veteran QB backup because Jimmy G is not ready for the NFL.  Tim would be a good option.  He is available for a cheap price, he knows the offense, and he has playoff experience. So the theory goes.

Unfortunately, events of the last few days have broken that theory down on several fronts.  First, Mallett didn't do his trade value any favors on Thursday night with an inconsistent performance.  Second, Garoppolo played so well that, were the Pats to trade Mallett, they might just keep Jimmy G as their sole backup. Ignore the practice reports that he struggled; Garoppolo was sharp when it counted.

Ryan Fitzpatrick might have moved this scenario back into the realm of the possible with his stinker for the Texans on Saturday night.  2 interceptions in 2 quarters and a 19.2 passer rating cannot have O'Brien feeling good about his quarterback plans or his terrible team performance. Oh yeah, and #2 QB Tom Savage has a concussion already.

In conclusion, I think Tim's odds of going to the Pats are shrinking.  However, the Pats QB situation is likely to change over the next few weeks, and the overall scenario does fit Tim well.

Raiders

Dennis Allen also joined the "I know this guy tanked elsewhere, but I think I can win with him" club when he signed Matt Schaub as his starter.  Schaub rewarded his faith with a poor performance this week that visibly upset owner Mark Davis.  The jury is still out on whether Derek Carr is ready to step up, and pushing him into the job too early is a good way to ruin him.  Allen does not have the luxury of waiting, however.  This is his third and probably final year as a head coach unless he turns around his club this year.  If Schaub continues to flounder, Allen is going to have to rip up his plans and make a desperation move.

On paper, Oakland is a good fit with a power downhill running attack, a traditional passing system, and experience with mobile QBs and the read option.  Allen also has first hand experience watching Tebow's leadership turn around a losing team, as he was the defensive coordinator for the Broncos during Tebow's "magic" 2011 season.

There is one major obstacle at Denver: "assistant head coach" Tony Sparano.  He was reportedly the main obstacle to Tim getting playing time with the Jets, and there is almost certainly little love lost between the two.  If Tony is more than a figurehead with a sympathy job, that would make it very hard for Tim to go there.  But if Allen has to choose between Tony's advice and his own job, who knows what might happen?

Browns

Watching Manziel's debut, I was struck with two observations.  First, Bryan Hoyer looked pretty sharp.  Second, Johnny Football plays a lot like Tim Tebow.  Unfortunately, Johnny does not look a lot like Tim Tebow with his shirt off, and I seriously doubt he will be able to absorb the hits he took on Saturday night for a full season.

Reportedly Manziel has pulled ahead of Hoyer in one of the more rigged competitions lately.  If Pettine and Shanahan do make Manziel #1, they will probably trade Hoyer.  Nobody wants a demoted starter hanging around, and Hoyer would have good value elsewhere because of his Belichick pedigree.  The Browns will need lots of depth at QB, because Johnny Football is almost guaranteed to become a man sandwich at some point this season.

I have written several times that Tim would be a good fit to back up Manziel.  I am probably wrong.  The biggest obstacle would be the West Coast offense that Shanahan runs.  There is also the Sanchez Effect to consider, though I doubt the Pope in a football uniform could overshadow Johnny Football.  In fact, Tebow's media presence might be a welcome distraction.

Cowboys

The Cowboys are all-in with Romo, and despite losing Orton they still have a former starter in Brandon Weeden.  But Romo's back is one bad hit away from retirement.  Dallas would be a good system fit, and the Cowboys could handle the PR workload.  The big wildcard would be Jerry Jones.  Who knows what he thinks?  Sanchez Effect means no possibility unless Romo goes down, then anything is possible.

Texans

The season's first quarterback train wreck.  Apparently everyone saw it coming but the guy driving the train. My gut tells me it won't happen, mainly because head coach Bill O'Brien is in his first year grace period.  Coaches in that situation usually get a free pass for a year or two as long as they look like they have a plan.  But with such an early head start on dysfunction, who knows what could transpire?

49ers

Lots of Tebow fans think this should have happened already.  #2 Blaine Gabbert's miserable performance this weekend strengthened that sentiment, with Harbaugh admitting the backup job is up for grabs.  I don't see it, because of A) West Coast offense, and B) Colin Kaepernick and the Sanchez Effect.

Seahawks

Good system fit, but A) Russell Wilson and the Sanchez Effect, and B) plenty of depth at QB with 3 viable backups.  I don't see it.

Panthers

Don't see it, because A) Cam Newton and the Sanchez Effect, and B) Cam Newton and the Sanchez Effect.  But if Cam's ankle turns out to be worse than expected, then who knows?  Ron Rivera did say nice things about Tim last week.

Who else?  

Feel free to suggest other teams that might be a good fit in the comments.  Let's group-source this analysis.