At this point it is awfully hard to predict where Tim Tebow might get another shot. Evidently nobody is willing to commit to him as a starter or primary backup. His best hope is to get into training camp as a 3rd stringer and hope his improved throwing motion impresses. Coaches love training camp competition, and Tim is nothing if not a competitor.
There are not a lot of openings right now, as the QB roster tracker shows. Any team looking to the free agent market has already moved. The remaining QB-needy teams are counting on the draft.
However, there are more needy teams than there are highly regarded QB prospects. Some teams will lose the game of musical chairs and wind up with a low rated pick or no QB picks. Even those who draft a highly rated QB face risk; there are no sure things this year.
With that in mind, here are some things to watch for that might signal an opportunity for Tim:
1. A blatantly QB-needy team fails to obtain a starting-quality QB. Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Minnesota obviously need a starting QB. However, there are some exceptionally talented players available in other positions. Teams drafting in the top 5 will will be sorely tempted to gamble that they can grab a good QB lower in the 1st round or high in the second round. If they do grab a Clowney or Mack, they must have a fallback plan in case all the potential starting QBs are gone when they pick again. Their best course will be to bring in a mix of draft picks and free agents to hold an "open competition" in training camp. The more the merrier, and that might include Tim.
2. A team with only 2 QB's on roster fails to draft a QB as a developmental pick. Right now Baltimore, New England, Indianapolis, and San Francisco only have 2 QB's on roster. No team goes into training camp with only 2 QBs, so those teams will either need to draft a developmental QB or sign a free agent as a "camp arm". Again, Tim might get a chance to come in and at least show his improvement from last year.
3. A team trades their established backup on draft day. Pretty unlikely but not impossible, as it might provide a solution to some team from situation #1. If New England trades Ryan Mallett or Washington trades Kirk Cousins, they will be looking for a replacement, and Tim is a decent fit for either team.
4. Wherever Johnny Manziel goes. Tim would be a good backup for Johnny Football, since they play the same style of offense. Whoever drafts Johnny has to plan for the eventuality that he gets hurt, and Tim is much more durable. Plus, you can't claim you don't want the circus in town when you just drafted Johnny F Football, right?
So that's a quick and dirty guide to what to watch for tomorrow, Friday, and Saturday. I will update the QB roster tracker with results after each night is over, to help you visualize the changes.
RonDog at 11:17am MDT 5.8.14
ReplyDeleteAgree with your take Ed. Thanks for laying it out. RonDog
You write great material, Ed; I have always enjoyed reading your work.
ReplyDeleteI still find it shameful that the NFL has blacklisted Tebow. I know most folks (including you, Ed), don't want to admit that, but the evidence keeps piling up.
I think the jags just substituted Bortles for Tebow.
ReplyDeleteLocal popularity-wise, yes. Football-wise, they may have substituted Bortles for Gabbert.
ReplyDeleteTebow would have been a much more inspired choice. I think Bortles would have flourished somewhere else. I believe the jags decision makers have heard us Tebow fans & looked at this as a way to take the pressure off.
ReplyDeleteSo the Browns stocked the shelves at home with running QB's and passed on Manziel? Strange.
ReplyDeleteLooking at draft order, it is entirely possible that he falls all the way to their next pick at 26. Teams 11-25 have starting QB's, and you don't bring in Johnny Football to ride the bench.
ReplyDeleteMost intriguing team is Houston. Mallett trade rumors are very interesting.
ReplyDeleteIt will be very hard for Jerry Jones to resist if he is still available. He would have to figure out what to do with Romo.
ReplyDeleteHe managed to restrain himself.
ReplyDeleteI know & for an offensive tackle no less. I wonder what Jimmy Johnson is thinking. :)
DeleteJones gave Romo a 6 year $108M contract last year. No way he was going to grab Manziel.
ReplyDeleteArizona and KC have a very slim chance of grabbing Manziel, but I doubt it. I think Cleveland gets their pick of Manziel and Bridgewater at 26, unless someone trades in front of them. Even then, Cleveland gets one of them.
Of course the Jets are about to pick, and Rex is nuts, so who knows?
ReplyDeleteAZ traded below Cleveland, so they ain't doing it. I think Cleveland gets their QB.
ReplyDeleteBoom!
ReplyDeleteTraded up to get in front of KC.
ReplyDeleteI bet Carr goes to Houston tomorrow night.
ReplyDeleteOK, now let's see if Bridgewater goes before the end of round 1. If so, scene set for Houston to trade for Mallett.
ReplyDeleteThe Browns mean business!
ReplyDeleteJohnny F Football to Cleveland was obvious in restrospect, given the presence of Kyle Shanahan and Vince Young. Browns offense is going to be a blast to watch. Wish Tebow could get in on the fun.
ReplyDeleteTebow is being treated like an outcast. Which is just so terribly unjust considering what he did in Denver. If he does not get another chance. I look at it as the league failing him & his fans, rather than him failing in the league.
DeleteYes!!! I was most worried about Bridgewater falling through to 2nd. If that happened, Houston would have no incentive to trade for Mallett. Thanks Vikings! Go Ragnar Lothbrok!
ReplyDeleteAnd there goes Bridgewater...
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteLots of smokescreen going on today. Curran backpedaling on heels of Werder report; others not as skeptical.
ReplyDeleteYeah, hard to know what to make of it all. In general I view any leak as intentional obfuscation until proven otherwise. EVERYONE is available at the right price.
DeleteCurran may also be intentionally downplaying after getting that spanking from Belichick.
DeleteIt's interesting that they're looking into trading Mallett, at all, because it suggests they're either confident that they can draft a rookie or two and get him (them) up to speed on their system without the safety net of having a veteran around that's already familiar with it; or they're confident that they can readily procure such a veteran. Right now I can only think of two of the latter: one being Hoyer and the other being practically free.
I missed the part about Belichick spanking Curran. Do you have a link to a story?
DeleteNo, it's inferred because Curran broke the story yesterday. BB's response to a direct follow-up question was to go "ask the guy who wrote it because he has all the answers" or something to that effect.
DeleteAh ok. I love watching the media scurry in fear of BB.
DeleteIt has been the one enjoyable part of this experience, yes.
DeleteRick Smith on Ryan Mallett: "We have not had any conversations with the New England Patriots."
Delete..."Not ALL of them, anyway."
Ok, I added that last part.
Pack your bags, Mallett.
ReplyDeleteAm assuming Pats want a 3rd round pick, so we should know in next 2 hours. May hinge on whether Garopolo, Savage, and Carr go in 2nd.
DeleteCarr to the Raiders.
DeleteOne down. Texans would be nuts to bank on the other two. Can smell it coming a mile away.
DeleteLooks like Garoppolo and Savage will fall through to 3rd round, so Houston will get another shot at them. Texans have been rumored to like both. But neither player was rated top tier, so I really can't see a new coach betting all the marbles on either of them. Need competition in camp.
DeleteHouston is not a rebuilding team. They have a ton of talent and were supposed to contend for the super bowl last year. QB implosion did them in. Surely they have a plan to fix that.
Curran likes A.J. McCarron for the Pats. I wonder if they take a QB now then trade Mallett. Or is a 2nd round pick too much to spend on a QB? So many variables...
DeleteHalf right. Just took Garoppolo.
DeleteAJ is not rated as a 2nd rounder, though some say he is underrated. I don't see BB spending his 2nd round pick on a backup. Has too many starter needs. 3rd round maybe, 4th round definitely. But if they do pick AJ and trade Mallett, they will certainly bring in a veteran for camp, and probably carry 3 QB during the season unless AJ blows them away.
DeleteWill know in 6:32 ... 6:31 ... 6:30 ...
Wow. Didn't see that one coming.
DeleteI would think this indicates they have agreed in principle on a trade for Mallett. Also, Texans just passed on a QB again.
DeleteConcur. Ian Rappoport explained they needed to make sure they could draft a replacement before they traded Mallett. Makes sense.
DeleteI feel strongly they will bring in a veteran QB for camp, and probably carry 3 QBs unless Jimmy G shines in preseason.
But when does it happen? I'm guessing tomorrow before 4th round opens. Need time to negotiate 1 year extension for Mallett.
DeleteI don't know enough about Jimmy G to know if they feel strongly about him or if they're just making due with the best available. I saw they would have preferred Bortles.
DeleteAnd Schefter's dumping cold water all over the idea (Mallett trade).
DeleteRap says they know they need to find Brady's replacement. Timing is not right for Mallett.
DeleteStrongest argument in favor of trade is that Houston still doesn't have a QB and they desperately need one. HC Bill O'Brien was Mallett's OC at New England. Where there is smoke there is fire.
Only argument against trade is that NE feels they need to hold onto Mallett until Jimmy G proves himself capable backup. In that case, Tim is screwed.
I believe it happens. No other explanation for lack of action by Texans, unless they have some wild move up their sleeve.
Either way it seems the Pats are not as high on Tim as we would have liked to believe.
DeleteNot as high as we had hoped. But perhaps high enough still. Let's see what happens between now and tomorrow night.
DeleteThe notion that BB and JMD had a secret plan to groom Tim as Brady's successor was always a pie in the sky fantasy. Wishful thinking on our part.
DeleteA more realistic scenario was that they saw value where others did not, and were willing to give him another look in training camp after a year of intensive work on his mechanics. That scenario is still open IF they trade Mallett.
Right now I find a Mallett trade more likely than at any point since I started following the Pats. The Texans' biggest need was QB, they have not filled it despite numerous opportunities to do so, and the remaining options seem woefully inadequate. If Bill O'Brien knows Mallett and has confidence in him, I can see how he would prefer that to taking a flier on a college kid.
I believe the current phase is a high stakes stare-down between the two teams. BB is trying to squeeze as much as he can out of the deal, while the Texans are trying not to get rolled. The clock is ticking, and BB wants Houston's #1 pick in the 4th round. Plus Mallett is a party to the negotiations, since he would reportedly have to sign an extension.
Trades are rather rare, but this one just makes so much sense for all three parties that I have to believe it will get done.
Part of me wonders if they grabbed Jimmy G. in the 2nd just to keep the Texans from getting him. Seems like kind of an expensive pick, otherwise, considering he's not head and shoulders superior to quarterbacks they could've gotten in later rounds.
Delete>>The notion that BB and JMD had a secret plan to groom Tim as Brady's successor was always a pie in the sky fantasy. Wishful thinking on our part. <<
DeleteWas that ever seriously discussed here, though? We did connect some dots between Pats and House, and entertained the possibility that TT went to House at their direction, but I don't think you or anybody else tried to argue that anyone was secretly grooming him. I think the second, "more realistic" scenario has been the prevailing speculation around here since last fall. Even it feels like wishful thinking now, but we might as well.
Watching this draft process unfold has been almost as much fun as watching the real games on Sundays. Lets hope the deal for Mallett gets done. I also believe it will unless another trade partner emerges at the last minute. The Texans are in a real tough spot. They sould have a dominat defense & a strong rushing attack next season. All they need is that one missing piece & that piece has not been easy to come by.
DeleteThis is also probably pie in the sky but if the deal were to fall through wouldn't it be something if they gave Tim a look. O'Brien is an impressive guy his work at Penn State was truly phenomenal considering the situation he walked into. He is a high character guy & I could envision him liking Tim's character. I don't know how he feels about him as a Quarterback but if he felt he could win with Tim he might consider it.
Probably pie in the sky right????
With whipped cream on top.
Delete"All is proceeding as I have foreseen." - Emperor Palpatine
ReplyDeleteUmmm, never mind.
DeleteTexans just picked up Tom Savage, but Mallett still possible.
ReplyDeleteSorry I was quiet today. Was out on the boat with family all day.
ReplyDeleteReaction: flabbergasted, perplexed, and disappointed.
Flabbergasted by the Texans. Are they really going into the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB? Because there ain't no way Tom Savage is ready to start. Does Bill O'Brien really plan to write off the season before it starts, or does he still have a trick up his sleeve?
Perplexed by the Patriots. I get why they did what they did. Belichick explained it fairly directly. But dang, a 2nd round pick? One thing seems for sure: unless they trade Mallett, there is no room for Tim at camp. They are going to want to focus their staff attention and their preseason reps on their new 2nd round pick.
Disappointed because I had hoped for at least a small glimmer of a chance for Tim. I see none in this draft. None.
So here's where we are now: casting at shadows, hoping against hope. What might still happen? Well, here are 3 scenarios, all unlikely, but not impossible:
1. Patriots trade Mallett to Texans for 2015 picks, possibly conditional on his playing time.
2. Browns bring Tim in to compete for backup job to Manziel.
3. Niners, Saints, or Colts bring him in as camp arm or backup competition.
Any others?
The Texans have way too much potential to be thinking about writing off this season. As I wrote previously they have a chance to have a dominant defense & have one of the best running backs in the game. They now also have to deal with the very real possibility of Johnny Manziel becoming a big star, when they had the first opportunity to select him right in their own backyard. So as ridiculous as it sounds I have to ask again. WHY NOT TEBOW TO THE TEXANS!!!??? He has all the qualities they would need in a quarterback. They are good enough to win right now without heavy reliance on a throwing Quarterback. A roll of the dice on Tebow is still a better bet than anyone else they have on their roster or an unproven commodity like Mallett. Mallett didn't impress any more than Tim did last preseason & he has seen very limited regular season playing time in his seasons with the Patriots. Plus the star power Tebow would bring would serve as a good counterweight to Manziel mania. If Tebow could lift a losing team without alot of talent the way he did in Denver, just imagine what he could do with a talented team like the Texans.
DeleteOne last point: Since as of yet they don't have their franchise Quarterback they would not have to worry about undermining anybody or commmit anything long term.
What would they have to endure to make this happen. Some ridicule & laughter!!! So what. Its worth the gamble!!!
What do you all think???
The Browns just picked up 2 UDFA's, bringing their QB total to 7 - it's past time to write them off. I also suspect that even if the Pats do trade Mallett they'd have more interest in Hoyer, who the Browns will no doubt be looking to move. And a slew of other UDFA QB signings - upwards of 20 - took place this evening across the league. By now it's safe to say that any opportunity for Tim would come as an enormous surprise. For my part it will be very difficult to invest any interest in the fate of these teams moving forward, as I'd rather not spend every game wishing it were Tim out there. I do look forward, however, to watching Tim's career develop, and hope that it takes some magnificent turns.
DeleteBob, in order for BoB and the Texans to pull that off, they would have to come straight out with the case that they have signed him strictly as a rebuilding year stop-gap - and why do that when they can just use Fitzpatrick for the same purpose with no media fallout and no playbook adjustments or learning curve?
Kathryn: Do you really think Fitzpatrick would produce as many victories as Tim would?? Besides no one would pay any attention to the Texans with Fitzpatrick. After the implosion they had last year they need leadership & a jolt of energy. Who could provide that better than Tim could. Also you would think a new head coach would want to start on a good note. With Tim the Texans could be a Super Bowl contender.
DeleteAt the very least an invite to camp should be in order. What do they have to lose???
It doesn't matter what you or I think. It only matters what BoB and the scouting department think. If any of these guys across the league saw the upside that we do, he'd be signed somewhere by now. Instead they're signing unknowns left and right because they've written him off. At best, someone might--might--agree to quietly give him a workout, but even inviting him to camp, let alone signing him, is a huge step beyond that.
DeleteNow that I've dumped chilled ice water all over everything, a few potentially leavening thoughts:
Delete-We aren't the only ones that can't quite get a handle on why Bill grabbed Jimmy G. in the 2nd. Fan chatter generally indicates a similar consensus, and analysts either agree with that bewilderment or simply don't address the question to that specificity, instead opting to simply provide the conservative explanation - that the position needed to be addressed in light of Brady's age and Mallett's contract. Fair enough, but that's just repeating a BB talking point.
-Given the rampant speculation, the leaks from both sides, and BB's irritated responses to questions about trading Mallett, I suspect that he was indeed very much trying to engineer a trade. As part of that it is not at all out of the realm of possibility that he either knew of or inferred Houston's interest in Jimmy G. and grabbed him in the 2nd to keep him out of their hands - killing two birds with one stone given that he'd already had plans to draft a quarterback.
-In this scenario BB spent a 2nd round pick on what would have otherwise been a 3rd or 4th round player due to the added value of tactical leverage (realized or not). Garoppolo's fitness to one day step into Brady's shoes is almost incidental, as the chief objective right now is to move Mallett. And if that is indeed the objective, and they succeed in relatively short order, then it is a near imperative that they bring on a veteran with playing experience to act as a safety net, the more familiar with their system the better.
-I still think that Hoyer's their guy in that scenario, given his substantial background with the pats and the fact that the Browns will likely accommodate a trade. But given his history of injury and the fact that their new QB isn't necessarily a 2nd round golden boy, the door may be open to bring back TT to, at the very least, take his arm for a test drive.
This is all a stretch - a stretchy stretch. But, as we like to say around here, not impossible.
I'm not ready to write the Browns off yet. Every move they have made points towards one conclusion: Shanahan is going all in on read option and mobile QBs. Consider the 40 times of the QBs the Browns have acquired in the last month:
DeleteManziel - 4.68
Young - 4.58
Thigpen - 4.78
Shaw - 4.60
Robinson - 4.60
Yeah, those guys are going to run. The big knock on that system is risk of injury to the QB, a harsh lesson Shanahan learned at DC. So far he is acting exactly as I would expect him to: collect a large stable of mobile QBs, evaluate in camp, keep the 3 best on roster, and stash a UDFA on practice squad.
From a purely football perspective, Tim is an excellent fit for that kind of system. They would be nuts not to give him a tryout but will probably ignore him anyways, for two reasons: 1) The collective weight of reporters and ESPN trucks descending on Cleveland to cover Johnny Football and Tim Tebow on the same team would sink Ohio below Lake Erie; and 2) Manziel's epic meltdown over Tim would make Mark Sanchez look like a rock of stability.
The problem with the Texans is that Tim is just not a good fit for their system.
It is clear at this point that no coaching staff considers Tim a viable option as starter. His chance, if it comes, will be in one of two capacities: backup or 3rd string project. To compete for backup, he MUST fit the offensive system in place. Right now, Cleveland is the only place that meets that criteria, with San Francisco and Seattle as maybes. As a project, he must go somewhere with a coach that truly believes in him as a person and is willing to invest the time and reputational credibility on him. JMD is the only guy I know of who meets that criteria.
I'm also still not willing to write off a Mallett trade. There was plenty of reportage that both sides tried, but could not work it out. Maybe that was all smokescreen, but in this case I think where there is smoke, there is fire. If they really want it, there is still time to make something happen using 2015 picks.
If you see a common thread in my analysis now, it is system fit. From that perspective, Tim's time on the Patriots was a huge gamble. He went to a team where he was a very poor system fit, and tried to take on an entrenched backup that had the confidence of the team. I can only surmise he wanted to prove he could succeed in any system, not just a QB run-heavy system. Or perhaps he simply went where he felt he would be treated honestly and fairly. After his time on the Jets, one can see why.
Oh yeah, and Hoyer's 40 time is 5.05. Not too hard to read between the lines there. He was an insurance policy until they got a viable starter in the draft.
DeleteDeleted original to repost inline.
Delete>>>2) Manziel's epic meltdown over Tim would make Mark Sanchez look like a rock of stability.<<
Yeah, but at least in that case people would rightfully expect Manziel to man up rather than coddle him as a victim the way they did Sanchez.
The other possibility is he went to New England because they may have been the only team willing to look at him as a quarterback. If no NFL team is willing to give him a shot this year I hope he decides to continue playing even if he has to go to CFL or another league. He needs to at least put this new throwing motion on display for all to see. I would rather see him do this than switch positions or go into broadcasting full time.
DeleteCompletely agree. It's worth observing that he has been getting workouts in while on the road doing his speaking gig thing. Meaning he's been asking for time with local college players and so on to get in actual throwing workouts in between appearances. He clearly wants to stay sharp in case Sexton calls and tells him to get on a plane. I can't imagine him putting in all the work that he has since last September, and taking the steps to keep his muscle memory sharp, only to abandon it all if he doesn't get invited to camp. I think he'll make a fine broadcaster, but not now. Stay in the game. Hell, if nothing else ask Ocho Cinco to put in a good word with the Alouettes. I'd drive my butt across the border to watch.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIn case you are interested: an amateur article with a fun title :)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dudesonsports.com/dudes-on-football/2014/5/11/the-houston-texans-are-doomed-at-quarterback
Great title. It does not take a pro to see the obvious.
DeleteThe central question is, does Houston see it too, or have they rationalized away their mistake?
Bill O'Brien is not a stupid man. He cannot be comfortable with his QB situation right now.
Not to beat a dead horse, but Texans have a 3 day voluntary mini-camp starting this Friday, then ~10 days of OTAs leading up to mandatory mini-camp June 16-18. There is still time to pull off the trade if they really want it bad.
DeleteUsing 2015 picks might make the deal easier, since they could set the value of the pick based on Mallett's production in 2014. Say 4th round pick as base value, increasing to 3rd if he is rostered as backup, or 2nd if he starts >X games. That reduces risk for the Texans, and adds upside for the Pats.
Hope springs eternal.
Welp. The Browns have just released Vince Young and Alex Tanney. Down to 5.
ReplyDeleteThat's good news for us Tebow hopefuls. Hopefully there will be more to come. The Tebow circus excuse is beginning to wear thin. Donald Trump who has never suffered from the Malady (commonly referred to as "group think" gave a good interview this morning on Fox & Friends. Trump has been very complimentary of Tim in the past & continues to be. I wonder if he has any realistic shot at purchasing the Bills?!
DeleteManziel t-shirts outsold the t-shirts sold by RGIII, Andrew Luck & Tim Tebow combined on their draft weekends. I have to believe at some point someone will have to think that a revamped Tim Tebow is a good risk.
Thanks for the update, Kathryn. I'm shocked they've released VY so quickly. He was the primary reason I didn't think Cleveland would be interested in Tim, b/c he's also so mobile.
Delete3, if you don't count the recently signed UDFA's. And there are rumblings - fan rumors, nothing substantial - that the Texans may be interested in Hoyer. That would pare it down to 2.
ReplyDeleteBrowns face a dilemma with Hoyer. They can't just give the job to Manziel; he has to earn it. But they can't wait until the end of camp to install their offensive system, and the optimal offense for Hoyer is very different than for Manziel.
DeleteSince they are invested in Manziel, the obvious solution is to get rid of Hoyer now bring in a QB who can compete in the same offensive system. I personally believe we will see Hoyer traded or released soon.
They will likely keep 3 QB's on roster in the regular season, and stash a UDFA on practice squad. If they want roster competition in camp, they probably need to bring in one more QB anyways.
If Hoyer departs, there will be room for Tebow, and no good football reason not to sign him.
I'm starting to jump on board this Tebow-to-Cleveland train w/you, Ed. I still doubt it will happen (although maybe it could happen if that homeless guy that told Haslam to draft Manziel were to tell him to sign Tebow-smh), but it does seem like it would be a good system fit. What I also like is the idea of a hard-working underdog like Tim going to work in a blue-collar town w/a perennial underdog team. And, TBH, I also like the idea of Tim being brought in to replace that arrogant jerk JFF when he gets injured &/or in trouble (at only 5' 11" & barely over 200 lbs it's 'when', not 'if', he gets injured) & succeeding like he did in Denver. But I'm dreaming again...
DeleteI confess that you are also gradually persuading me. I continue to resist, though, because I'm so sick and tired of being disappointed.
DeleteLOL, yeah, and I'm sick and tired of being wrong. But only gotta be right once.
DeleteI completely understand & agree with that sentiment Kathryn. For 2 years now we have been analyazing, making predictions, looking for glimmers of hope only to come away disappointed. Maybe we should reward ourselves by making a pact as a group to go see Tim's first game in person if he is named as a starting quarterback.
DeleteWhat does everyone think?? Do you like the idea?? I just hope if this happens I won't have to go to Green Bay or Chicago in December. I hope it would take place in Miami. :)
I'm all over that, I think it would be a blast. I would even do it if he were in the CFL or arena league. Everyone make sure your passports are valid, lol!
DeleteEd, the bulk of your analysis is not wrong. It's logical, reasonable, and invariably assembles a comprehensive portrait of the facts. You are an outstanding analyst, better than many pros. It just so happens that there is a subjective element at play that has an enormous influence on the outcome, but that is nearly impossible to predict or incorporate into an analysis without further information. No one without insider access could do better than you have done. I look forward to more.
>>Bo Mattingly @SportsTalkwBo 42m
ReplyDeleteMort: A coach interested in Mallett told me it takes two to tango, meaning the Pats weren’t inclined to trade him.<<
Aren't inclined to trade him or only inclined to trade him for the right price? With that flurry of mixed reports last week, I've been wondering if the Pats & Texans haven't been playing a game of chicken, w/BB insisting on holding out for the right price.
Delete^ Brooke, or the quote came from a non-Texans coach that the Pats had no interest in dealing with. Doesn't rule out a trade, just muddies the already murky water...
DeleteAs does this...
>>NFL: AroundTheLeague @NFL_ATL 2m
Texans, Patriots still have mutual interest in a Mallett trade, per @RapSheet http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000349893/article/ryan-mallett-still-has-a-chance-for-trade-to-houston-texans?campaign=Twitter_atl …<<
EVERYONE is for sale if the price is right. Now whether Houston is willing to pay that price ...
DeleteAccording to @RapSheet the magic date is 27 May, since that is when Pats OTAs start. So 2 weeks from tomorrow we ought to know.
DeleteAs I said earlier, I believe using 2015 picks may provide the flexibility to get the deal done. Key the round of the pick to performance this year, either by Mallett or the Texans.
One last thought: I know we like to think most of these guys are full of crap, but some of them do have good access at the team executive level. It is VERY encouraging that Rappaport is still reporting this. His livelihood depends on him not looking like an idiot, so he would not put this out there if it were pure speculation on his part.
Delete"According to @RapSheet the magic date is 27 May, since that is when Pats OTAs start."
DeleteHere are the Texans' OTA/camp dates:
OTA offseason workouts: May 27-29, June 2-3, June 5, June 9-10, June 12-13
Voluntary minicamp: May 6-8
Mandatory minicamp: June 17-19
Do you think it's possible that O'B wants to first see how these guys do in OTAs before being willing to pay a decent price in a trade? I keep thinking that BB's asking for a pretty high price, if he's willing to trade at all.
The next tweet that Bo guy sent out is interesting, too:
Delete"Mort: The Patriots are Super Bowl contenders, and they don’t want to go thru the season without a veteran backup quarterback."
The Pats might actually not be interested in trading Mallett for that reason. :sigh:
Just posting stuff as it comes out:
Delete>>John McClain @McClain_on_NFL 5m
Texans will not be trading for Ryan Mallet.<<
RonDog May 13, 2014
DeleteThanks Kathryn for posting. I had to chuckle a little at John McClain's definitive post though; given that I just watched this the other night:
http://youtu.be/d2_CH3fEr98
:-). Pretty funny. I've got to give it to Mr. McClain though, he has no problem climbing right back up on that horse named 'prognostication'. :-)
I can't be You-Tubein' it right now - what did he say in the video?
DeleteRonDog May 13, 2014
DeleteWeeks ago he said he'd eat the Sports Page of the newspaper he works for if the Texans DON'T take a Quarterback in the 1st Round of this years draft. The video was of him eating the front page with some gravy.
Ah, ok. I guess it goes to show that even inside access is limited. That said, this will-they-or-won't-they back and forth between the two teams has grown tiresome. To think of potentially two more weeks of this makes me want to crawl under my bed.
DeleteThe media sure loves it though:
Delete>>House Of Houston @HouseOfHouston 2m
McClain says no but Rapoport says yes. Is Ryan Mallett still a possibility? http://houseofhouston.com/2014/05/12/houston-texans-ryan-mallett-still-possibility/ <<
Here's the other side of the Texans' coin: Hoyer
Delete>>http://houseofhouston.com/2014/05/12/brian-hoyer-target-houston-texans/<<
At this point it is impossible to determine whether all these reports are truthful sources, baseless speculation, intentional misinformation, or negotiating ploys.
DeleteSo Tim made another appearance at an ESPN event this morning, and I have to confess that as much as what he does with his life is none of my business it nevertheless makes me ill to watch the direction it is taking. Some have reported that he is, in his speaking gigs, referring to his life as a football player in the past tense. It would not be so discouraging to hear that if he weren't also working out like a mofo at every opportunity. I'm at the point that I have to admit that it's not just the coaches and gm's whose behavior is confounding me. Tim's is just as confounding. Why work so damned hard and then draw the line at NFL or nothing at all? Why send such mixed signals by training your ass off with Tom House and then signing with ESPN? Why obligate yourself to a television contract for three years rather than trying to forge a path back to the NFL through another league? Alternatively, if you're emotionally ready to let it go and move on - why keep training 'just in case'? Watching this drama unfold has been like staring at Jackson Pollock painting: I just don't get it.
ReplyDeleteHe also attended the CAA party last night.
DeleteTim's privy to info we don't have. For example, there's no point in pursuing the CFL if nobody's interested in him, or only interested in him for marquee value. Same w/AFL. But he has to keep doing something to earn money & maintain a platform, b/c he has his foundation to support, so the ESPN gig makes sense to me for that reason. Unlike a lot of other football players that get cut, he also has other interests & opportunities to fall back on. I think that's what his attending the Hollywood-type functions he's been attending & the WH Correspondents Dinner have had to do w/. I think he's trying to make opportunities in both the entertainment & political worlds happen by going to these functions & networking. But that's just my opinion.
I've pretty much chosen to tune out his non-football activities. Other than generally being a good person, I'm not interested in what he does for a 2nd career, and I doubt it will follow him closely when he stops playing.
DeleteAs an aside, I once had a conversation with a person who knows Tim reasonably well from college. He said Tim aims to be President one day.
'He said Tim aims to be President one day.'
DeleteThat wouldn't surprise me at all. I've long thought that he has had a definite, but malleable, long-term plan in mind.
From the quotes I have seen the context of those football quotes are referring to later on in his life he doesn't think he should be judged as a football player not necessarily present tense to past but rather future tense to past.
ReplyDeleteI have a football related question: Ed has been talking alot about system fits & yes I see the validity of fitting the right players with the right coaches based on systems. My question is what is the degree of difficulty for most of the NFL coaches to change their systems to match particular players skills? Is this something that is done regurlary or very rarely in the NFL. I had always thought that one of the makings of good coaching was to be able to adapt to your personnel. I know this varies from staff to staff.
They did it on the fly with Tim in Denver, and not that many changes were made. They added some read option and made other tweaks but generally developed it around the existing playbook. It got ugly, but effective, and was done without the luxury of time, trial & error that camp provides. Making such adjustments before or during camp would not be all that difficult.
DeleteWell I'm no expert, don't know anything more than you or anyone else. As a general statement, adapting to personnel is what teams do when they must because they don't have a choice. But the margin of competitiveness in the NFL is too thin to make that your plan going in. There is only a finite amount of time to design a coherent system and teach it to the team. Only an incompetent staff would go into that process with players not posessing the attributes most needed for success.
DeleteThe Browns offense under Kyle Shanahan presents the most extreme contrast of system possible. The Browns go to great pains to point out that Shanahan has had success with various types of offensive systems. But not really. His primary success was with RGIII in his rookie year, and the main driver of that success was his willingness to use RGIII's mobility as a constant threat. His constant use of misdirection and option reads of multiple defenders (not just the DE like a traditional read option) were a masterpiece that kept defenses off balance. But take away the running threat and what kind of results did he get? A 3-13 season, second worst in the league, that's what.
Now look at Manziel and Hoyer. You could not find two QBs with more opposite talents if you set out with that purpose in mind. Manziel rushed for 2,169 yards in just 2 seasons of college play, and set numerous records for rushing TDs and yardage. Hoyer rushed for -205 yards in 4 seasons. Yes, that's right, Hoyer rushed for NEGATIVE total yardage in college.
Don't forget, Tebow got hammered pretty good until they adjusted the system to fit him. And Elway's stated reason for releasing him was that they couldn't maintain two offensive systems, one for the starter and one for the backup. While I don't believe that was their prime motivation, it certainly is a legitimate point. Like it or not, the backup has have similar attributes to the starter, because he may have to step in at any time.
DeleteThank you for that detailed explanation. It really put it all into focus.
DeleteI agree I am not all that interested in his non-football activities either. However if he does run for President someday, he will have a leg up on his competitors on how to handle the media demands of the job.
If the Mallett deal does get done & Tim is fortunate enough to get invited to the Patriots camp I hope he could get a guarantee from the staff that he will make the team. I would hate to see him go there again only to be released again. As you stated previously it is not the best system fit for him there. He may be better off waiting (hoping) for an opportunity where he is a better fit. Hopefully some teams that may have shied away from him in the past because of the media storm will bank on the fact that the media may be pre-occupied with Manziel, Sam etc...San Francisco & Washington both have backups with traits that differ from their starters. I cannot see how Gabbert compliments Kapernick likewise for Cousins & RGIII. Perhaps these may be better opportunities than New England.
>>Bart Hubbuch @HubbuchNYP
ReplyDeleteBrowns PR director told me: "We don't want this to be a Tebow situation. It's not going to be Johnny Football Mania out there." <<
If these guys really believe what they're saying then we're giving them way too much credit for not being fools. Monkeys at a damned keyboard. I'm done.
DeleteTim, go be a broadcaster. You deserve way better than to have to please these clowns.
He thinks he gets a vote.
DeleteAnd that's the primary reason why I can't imagine Tim going to the Browns, even though it's the best system fit. Everyone saw what happened to Sanchez w/Tim behind him. Manziel's just a rookie & one that they've just invested a significant amount of money & an important draft pick in. Unless they get desperate, I just can't imagine them bringing in Tebow. I think they'd bring back VY before they'd even consider Tim. Unless, of course, they just want a ton of publicity.
DeleteAdd: When I say 'desperate', I mean a situation where Manziel has a potentially career-ending injury.
DeleteBrooke: On it's suraface you make a valid point. If it were anyone else besides Manziel the Tebow affect would probably be overwhelming..I believe Manziel is a different character than Sanchez & might actually be fueled by Tebow's presence. And in turn I also believe Tebow would be fueled by Manziel. The dynamic between the two would be must see theatre. They both like the spotlight & I think they genuinely understand & like each other. Wouldn't it be the irony of ironies if at some point Tebow were brought in to help stabilize things.
DeleteDo I think this will happen probably not. But it sure is fun to think about.
That's an interesting point, Bob. I just can't imagine them bringing in Tebow w/a presumed franchise QB in his rookie year. But who knows?
DeleteRonDog May 14, 2014
DeleteWhen Tebow & Manziel teamed up with ESPN at the BCS Title Game, I was pretty impressed with their comradery:
www.gamedayr.com/lifestyle/athletes-2/gif-tim-tebow-johnny-manziel-fist-bump-94012.
It would be interesting to see the two of them on the same team. I still come back to my desire to see some form of a "2 QB Set" in the NFL with two talents like Manziel (right handed) & Tebow (left handed), a la Louisiana-Monroe:
www.smartfootball.com/spread/louisiana-monroes-two-quarterback-zone-read-system
I'm not convinced that Manziel is mature enough to handle the attention and pressures of having Tebow on the sidelines as the 'other mobile QB'. But, I could be wrong. I do like Pettine and Farmer as leaders, they might be able to pull it off.
RonDog
Not really sure how Manziel would react to Tebow on the same team. According to that leaked Patriots scouting report, he is spoiled and overly sensitive to criticism, so it might cause an epic meltdown. On the other hand, he is as highly competitive as Tim, so it might spur him to play even harder.
DeleteI actually think having Tim on the team would be good from a media standpoint, because it would deflect some of the glare from Manziel.
Word is getting around that Tebow is in Tennessee this evening throwing at D1 sports. I like that he sent out a picture of himself throwing the football.
ReplyDeleteEarlier today I had been thinking that it may not be a bad idea for him to go on a little strategic PR offensive putting some pressure on teams to take another look.
Totally agree. I would like to see him tweet a new photo every day of him with a football in his hand.
DeleteCan't help but notice Tim tweeted he would be in Seattle, which is a departure from his usual MO of keeping quiet about his travel plans.
ReplyDeleteThe Seahawks would be an excellent system fit. They have a secure coach and QB, and Carroll was a big fan of Tebow coming out of college.
On the down side, they already have 4 QBs on roster. Their backup played great last season and has a contract for guaranteed money, and they just traded a7th round pick for a 3rd string QB.
I assumed he just tweeted that b/c of why he's going there: to help w/a fundraiser at Judah Smith's church.
DeleteHe got some positive press for a change while he was in Tennessee. The players & coaches he was working out with went so far as to say they cannot understand how he is not in the NFL. They said all his passes were right on point & had alot of zip.
DeleteI hope his visit to Seattle means something football wise that we are not aware of.
I would like to see a sustained & persistent effort from him to keep his face in front of NFL teams so he could not be so easily dismissed. With the goal being to change the media narrative from "his career is over" to "why not give Tebow a chance". Teams should be forced to answer this question. While there are many in the media & in NFL circles who have already made up their minds & will not be swayed, there are also others who have become allies. I hope Trent Dilfer does some more lobbying for him & is able to recruit some more allies as well.
Talk of a Mallet for Andre Johnson trade is heating up. Don't know if it has any validity, but it does have some logic to it. Houston needs a QB and the Patriots always need good receivers. The major obstacle are Johnson's contract terms, which are prohibitive.
ReplyDeleteRegardless of whether a trade gets done, the reports are significant because they indicate that it's not just us fans who think Houston's QB plan is inadequate. The pros with the most at stake also think so. BoB does NOT want to start his tenure as head coach with a vote of no-confidence from his star player. That creates a powerful incentive to shore up his QB roster. There aren't any proven options at free agent, so a trade is probably his only means to do so.
If Tim were to be invited back to the Pats for camp. Do you think it would be wise for him to go back there without a guarantee that he will make the team?? In some of our previous commentary we said it was not a good system fit for him. I know just getting a foot in the door may be all he could hope for but if he were to released again it could be a fatal blow to his NFL hopes.
DeleteHe may be better off waiting on an opportunity where he would be a better fit.
Interested in hearing your thoughts on this.
Really can't say without knowing what discussions he has had with other teams. Assuming that was his only offer or solid prospect, I think he must take it regardless of the system. He needs to get on the field and prove that his accuracy has improved.
Delete