Friday, August 29, 2014

Tebow team tracker: end of preseason

A few weeks ago I tried to itemize possible Teams for Tebow headed into training camp.  With preseason games over and the regular season about to start, let's see where things stand, and how some of my predictions played out.

Hot

Rams - Having lost their franchise QB, the Rams obviously need a starter. I think Tim would be a good fit with the Rams because there is nobody for him to threaten.  However, the timing is off.  They can't get any new QB up to speed in time for the regular season, so they are stuck with Shaun Hill for the first few games.  I suspect they'll see how he does, and be ready to make a move on their break in the 4th week of the season if necessary.

Update: they cut Garret Gilbert, who I assume will be a candidate for practice squad.  But it would make room for them to bring in a veteran later.

Bills - Wow, they are in a bad spot. EJ Manuel is struggling, and the coach does not have confidence in Jeff Tuel.  They cut Thad Lewis and brought in Jordan Palmer, he of 56 career passing yards over 8 seasons, to "improve" their backup QB situation.  Whoever made that pitch, I want to hire him as my director of sales.  This was last night's result:


Obviously  they have to do something.  I don't think they are quite ripe enough to go for Tebow, not until they give up on EJ Manuel and no longer fear the Sanchize Effect.  But if he flounders in his first 4 or 5 games, I think head coach Doug Marrone will be under a lot of pressure to make a decisive move.  The offense is relatively simple and friendly to QB runs, so it could be a fit.  It just depends on whether Marrone is self-assured enough to buck conventional wisdom, or whether he is insecure about coming from a college job.

Update: Jordan Palmer has apparently been released already.  The Bills only have 2 QB's on roster.  I am more than 100% sure it will not stay that way.

Update #2: Orton signed, Tuel released.  Amazing.  I think it confirms the Sanchize Effect.  But still ... to sign a guy who went 4-14 and pass over the guy who went 9-7 with the exact same roster?  Where the heck are the media?  Because you know they'd be raising holy hell if the decision were reversed.

Not

Texans - Another slow motion disaster that everyone saw coming.  However, their offense is a poor system fit for Tim, who is not the kind of QB that Bill O'Brien likes.   More likely O'Brien still hopes to get Mallett on the cheap.

Patriots - Any chance of my pet theory working out were dashed when Jimmy Garropolo out-played Ryan Mallett.  Now the speculation centers on whether Mallett will get cut or not.  Either way, with Jimmy G being the QB of the Future (tm), there is no need or room for Tim on the Pats.

Update: Mallet was NOT cut.  Wonder if they still hope to trade him? He's gone after this season, so his value to the team shrinks with every game. Will be very interesting to see where he and Jimmy G sit on the depth chart, and who is active for games.

Browns - In order for Tim to fit on the Browns, Johnny Football needed to win the starting job and Brian Hoyer needed to be traded.  It appears that will not happen.  Too many QB's means no room for Tim, even if they were so inclined.  Too bad, as I still think Tim could be a great system fit under Kyle Shanahan.  Finally a quarterback that he can't break with designed runs.

Raiders - The Raiders have looked excruciatingly bad, with starter Matt Schaub playing terrible and suffering from tendonitis to his throwing arm.  However, Derek Carr impressed last night, and most observers expect him to win the starting job.  With Carr being the Quarterback of the Future (tm), I doubt coach Dennis Allen risks the Sanchez Effect.  Too bad, as Allen is going to get fired this year unless Carr really shines.

Cowboys - After reading about Jerry Jones wanting to be known as a  football guy, I think I got this one wrong.  If he craves approbation of his peers, there is no way he goes anywhere near Tim.

49'ers - Gabbert stunk fiercely through most of the preseason, but may have recovered enough in the last game to save his position.  With Kap struggling, no way Harbaugh risks the Sanchize Effect.

Watch

Cuts - Final roster cuts happen by tomorrow 4 pm tomorrow, and there might be a surprise QB or two on that list.  The candidates most mentioned include Ponder and Mallett.  That won't open up anything for Tim, but could close a potential opening. You can track roster cuts here.

Update: no major QB cuts.  In fact, the big surprise was that Ponder and Mallett were not cut, so teams looking for a QB to push their starter aren't going to get one on the waiver wire.  The Rams will have to look to trade or free agency.

Injuries - You saw how quickly the Rams' situation changed when Bradford blew out his knee.  A fraction of a second is all it takes.  That can happen at ANY time to ANY team.  So take heart, and keep the faith.

15 comments:

  1. Here Is How I See It:

    RAMS: Their first 3 games are against weak teams. After their bye week the schedule gets much tougher & will be a better indicator of how their season will play out. I hope they have a contingency plan already in place if they need one.

    BILLS: Palmer just got released so as of now Manuel is their only QB. To me this team looks demoralized & devoid of leadership. I predict they start the season either 1-5 or 0-6. This one is a no brainer. GET TEBOW NOW! 1-800 TEBOW!

    HOUSTON: Agree with you assesment. Easy early schedule could be telling if they play poorly or misleading if they play well.

    PATS: Agree on this also.

    COWBOYS: If as you say Jones wants the approval of his peers I agree no Tebow. But if as the article also claims the one thing he wants more than anything else is a Super Bowl without Jimmy Johnson then hopefully someone who believes in Tebow can persuade him that this may be his best way to do that. Anyone who read the wonderful article by themascotarmy.tumblr.com will understand.

    Raiders: Agree unlikely with Carr & McGloin who I think they also like.

    Browns: Both QB's are injury prone. So on this one I say wait & see.

    Even with Tim being out of the league his presence is still being felt around the league. The questions are how long will they continue to ignore him or who will be the first to have the vision & courage to take a chance on him.

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    1. Should we attribute the Orton signing to the "Sanchize effect". What Gives. WOW!

      Pryor would have been a better pickup IMO.

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    1. Thanks. Big Five-Oh! Notice the blog title changed.

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  3. RonDog. Texans just got Mallett for a song (conditional 7th round pick). If not for Jimmy Garoppolo's great pre-season play, I'd say Tebow was about to be a Patriot again. Not sure BB brings in Tebow now ... bummer really.

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    1. Ron Dog & Friends (Sounds like a good title for a show.) :)

      It's hard as a Tebow/Football fan watching all the shuffling going on & another season about to begin without Tim being on a roster or in many cases not even being part of the conversation when we know how much potential there is to be unleashed. Nevertheless our only choice is to soldier on & hope he & we will get our chance for redemption.

      That being said here are a few comments on today's developments & what they might mean for Tim's prospects going forward.

      1) The Mallett deal. This helps in two ways. One it takes Mallett off the market & opens up a spot on the Patriots roster. I don't believe Tim will be packing his bags for New England just because Mallett is not there but it is the one place more than any other we Tebow fans can feel confident that if something were to happen to Brady or Garropolo Tim would get fair consideration.

      2) The Cowboys also talking to the Pats about Mallett means they are not satisfied with thier qb situation.

      3) Grossman & Shaw being cut by the Browns. Hoyer & Manziel are both injury prone & have differing styles of play. If they do not find a way to complement each other this may lead to an opening at some point for reasons we have discussed previously.

      4) It was good hearing the flattering comments concerning Tim from Brian Schottenheimer & the fact that they share the same agent. Not sure if this really helps but it can't hurt either. We have heard these kind of comments before from coaches who have had opportunities to take Tim & have not done so. On the other hand the Rams are in a Bind & still in need of a good quarterback.

      There are not any attractive starting caliber quarterbacks on the market as far as I can see. After all who saw the Orton signing coming.

      Stay tuned it's a long season & more opportunities will arise.

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  4. Strongly doubt Pats will bring Tebow back. Same situation as last year, they won't want to burn the roster spot when they are making a Super Bowl run.

    As Kathryn observed, bringing in Orton for 5 million bucks pretty much rules out Tebow under any circumstances.

    I still think the Rams have some legs. Haven't seen any words or actions that would rule it out yet. As I tweeted, there are enough connections there that Tim ought to at least be able to get a tryout. Rams are going slow, waiting to see what options turn up. Nothing happened during final cuts this weekend to solve their problem. If Hill struggles for a few games I think they will feel a lot of pressure to do something.

    Of course I have seen dozens of opportunities before that didn't pan out. Feeling kind of stupid even arguing for it at this point. But what's the alternative, give up?

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  5. RonDog @ 8pm on Aug 31 ...

    Agree with all your points. The one thing that has concerned me about the Rams as a landing spot --> I can just see the headlines now, "Rams dump Sam and hire Tebow". The argument would be bogus, but, a lot of news outlets would do their best to forward this storyline.

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    1. Has it been a mistake for the Tebow camp to not be doing more public self promotion??? Other than the Dilfer video we haven't heard anything more about his new mechanics.

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    2. The last thing Tim needs is public self-promotion. Promoting his new mechanics is something that his agent will do in private, behind the scenes. Having said that, I certainly would like to see him throw.

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  6. Apologies in advance for the egregious volume of verbal spewage...

    It's clear at this point that the Anybody But Tebow mentality isn't going anywhere. Facts no longer matter. The powers-that-be in the League and all but a few relatively obscure members of the media have adopted the following as doctrine:

    1.) The Broncos turned their season around in 2011, not because of Tim Tebow, but in spite of him. The Denver Broncos signed Tim in 2010, and went 5-15 before naming him the starter at the bye week of his second season. Tim and Kyle Orton had nearly the exact same roster, with the notable exception of Pro Bowl wide receiver Brandon Lloyd, who was traded right before Tim took over. With Tim at the helm, the Broncos concluded their season with an 8-5 record, including a playoff victory. Forget the fact that this astonishing turnaround occurred just as Tim took over. According to the experts Tim should get zero credit for his contribution because a) he's not an NFL QB and b) they say so.

    2.) Tim's stint with the Jets was a legitimate opportunity. Prior to the 2012 season, John Fox put on a clinic as to how to play to Tim Tebow's strengths in the NFL. Tony Sparano didn't get the memo, instead devising a predictable scheme which, by midseason, consisted of running Tim up the middle on every single play until three of his ribs barreled into a wall of Rams. Rex Ryan, donning a tattoo of Mark Sanchez's jersey, watched impotently on the sidelines as his team unraveled. The Sanchez contingent (anonymously) trashed Tim in the NY Post. Buttfumble became a word. And Greg McElroy distinguished his first start for the team with 11 sacks and a concussion. All while Tebow sat on the bench, waiting for the opportunity to prove himself (again) as a starter. If Rex really thought Tim was so terrible, he could've shut down the debate by starting him after the season was lost - just one game to settle it once and for all. But he didn't. Tim was more valuable to him as the team scapegoat. To this day, players are blaming him for their failures. That was his "opportunity" with the Jets. And the experts who didn't bat an eye when Brady Quinn signed with his 7th team continue to insist that "Tebow ran out of chances."

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  7. 3. Tim Tebow can't throw and can't learn to throw. At least part of this one has some basis in reality, and it's important - and beneficial to Tim - to acknowledge it: he did not know how to pass in a pro system while he was an active player. Every blowhard with a microphone has made this point, pulverizing it into the ground with their officious analyst sticks; and only one of them - Trent Dilfer - has alluded to the point that they're missing the forest for the trees. Think about it. A player that did not know how to pass in a pro system is so damned good at football that he helped steer a 1-4 team all the way to a playoff victory in which he still holds *passing records*. Imagine what that guy can do if his mechanics are retrained and he's given more time to develop in a pro system? But the experts don't want to imagine that. He's not an NFL QB, remember? He didn't turn Denver around, their Defense did. He can't learn to pass. So they put their time and effort into guys with the approved pedigree: Blaine Gabbert, Jimmy Clausen, Kyle Orton, Case Keenum. Not a winning season between them, but eventually one of them will stick, right? ...Right?

    Right...because they say so. And because Tim isn't an NFL QB.

    I'm no longer holding out hope that things are going to change. I will dance a jig and eat a digital hat if I'm wrong, but I won't be. Injuries and heinous quarterback play will continue to blight teams across the League this season, and teams will continue to sign player after player that make us ask "WTF?" while the experts explain that Tim isn't an NFL QB and those of us who suggest that he's a better alternative must not know anything about football.

    I know what a load of BS sounds like.

    There comes a point that the intellectual bankruptcy is too insulting to stomach anymore. If this is how the NFL operates then one must ask what's the accomplishment in proving anything to any of these people? The team executives make conservative decisions based on fear and pass the buck to BS excuses such as "Too much media attention" (now that it's worked on Tim, they're using it on Michael Sam). Risk is a dirty word. Diva players with weak constitutions are coddled. Analysts do little more than stick their fingers in the wind, and journalists in general see who can get the most high-fives on Twitter from the chronically malcontented. They don't bother observing that Tim had to learn five different offenses during his brief, 3-ish season tenure--a point that among other things might have had something to do with his growing pains--they just eat whatever line their anonymous sources want to dish out in the hopes of keeping those sources happy.

    Color me impressed.

    In not being good enough for these guys, Tim has managed to prove to be too good for them. Brace yourselves while the universe implodes.

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    1. I feel much the same way. Felt it very acutely yesterday when Keenum news came out. After a day to square my feelings with rational analysis, have slightly cooled down, but not much. Still much disgust, but I'm going to try and make sense of it.

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    2. It's no longer possible to apply rational analysis because we're dealing with irrational behavior. I wouldn't use the word Blacklist in this context because it implies an engaged conspiracy that I do not believe exists. It is plainly clear, however, that teams are allowing sports media, social media and social conformity to govern their attitudes toward this player. Coach A won't sign Tim because GM B won't sign him; and GM B won't sign him because Owner C doesn't want him; but Owner C doesn't want him because Coach A won't sign him, and on and on. Teams with every football reason to sign him are passing in fear of a phantom pastiche of issues that don't exist!

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  8. It's no secret that Tim because of his style of play & his unwillingness to bow to the standards set by others is held to a different standard. Thus the ridicule.

    Imaginary Sanchez Effect or not this most recent snub has to make one wonder whatever happened to good old fashioned competition. Does it even still exist? However until Tim himself says he will no longer pursue playing I will hold out hope for that one last chance.

    We have no idea of knowing what may or may not be happening behind the scenes but as an outside observer it seems like there hasn't been a coordinated effort to combat any of the notions that Kathryn alluded to in her commentary.

    At this point we can take comfort in the fact that whether or not Tim ever plays again he has made his mark on football forever. While some of the subpar quaterbacks who hang around will soon (if not already be forgotten). Along with the group think analysts.



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