Tebow, EJ, and the Sanchize Effect

In the wake of a particularly egregious performance by all 3 of the Bills quarterbacks on roster, many fans are calling for Tebow to be brought in as a backup.

Tim would be a very good system fit at Buffalo, and has a similar playing style to EJ.  He is clearly better than Jeff Tuel or Thad Lewis by any objective or subjective standard.  Regardless of this, it is extremely unlikely that the Bills will consider signing Tim Tebow in the first half of the season.  The reason is the Sanchize Effect.



The Sanchize Effect goes like this: Tim's huge popularity with fans and his will to lead can have a destabilizing effect on the quarterback ahead of him on the roster.  This makes him ill suited to serve as a backup for any quarterback that struggles, especially one whom his team hopes will develop into a franchise QB.

The Sanchize Effect was well documented when Tim played with the Jets.  Mark Sanchez was a 1st round draft pick by the Jets.  Surrounded by talent and not asked to do too much, he responded by taking the Jets to the conference championship game in his 1st and second seasons.  The Jets were clearly invested in Sanchez and hoped for him to become their franchise quarterback, the long-awaited successor to Joe Namath, the "Sanchize".

Unfortunately Sanchez regressed in his 3rd year, and the team failed to make the playoffs.  Sanchez had the physical talent and skills, but his problems appeared to be mental in nature.  He made bad decisions under pressure and attempted to do too much, leading to interceptions at critical times.

At this critical point, the Jets brought in Tim Tebow as his backup.  What happened next was entirely predictable in hindsight.  Sanchez put up a facade of bravado, feigning the confidence that he knew starting NFL quarterbacks must have.  But when he made mistakes, the Tebow chants started in the stands, and his mental game completely imploded.  He struggled more and more under the pressure, culminating in the infamous and farcical "butt fumble".  The result: Sanchez lost his status as an NFL starter, and the Jets lost their franchise quarterback, setting them back at least 2 years.  GM Mike Tennenbaum got fired and Rex Ryan probably will this season unless he makes the playoffs.

Now at this point many Tebow fans may observe that a QB who folds under pressure from his backup was never franchise material to begin with.  Fair enough.  Be that as it may, no team executive is going to risk his career recommending that his team take actions that make it harder for their prospective franchise QB to succeed.  After all, having a legitimate franchise QB is the single biggest determinant of being a successful club in the NFL.

Here is where EJ Manuel comes in.  The Bills drafted him in the 1st round last year, the first QB taken in the draft.  He showed some promise last year but struggled with injuries and lack of supporting talent.  The Bills clearly hope that he will make a big leap between his first and second seasons, as many quarterbacks do.  Unfortunately, in his first 2 games he has played mediocre at best.

Here's the essential point: as long as the Bills still hope that EJ Manuel may become their franchise QB, they will NOT sign Tim Tebow as his backup.  The reasoning is simple. EJ is going to have some bad games this year.  In the mind of his handlers, the last thing he needs are Tebow chants in the stands.  The increased pressure of playing in front of the most popular backup in the league could very easily push him over the edge, wasting the Bill's investment in a 1st round pick and setting them back several more years in their search for "the one."  After seeing what happened downstate with the Jets, any Bills executive proposing to bring Tebow to the Bills would get laughed out of the boardroom.

Keep in mind the relative skill level of Tebow versus Tuel and Lewis is irrelevant.  A backup quarterback is like a seat belt; you must have it, but you hope you never need it.  However, you would never use a seat belt that made you more likely to crash your car, no matter how great a seat belt it was. That would be nuts.

This does not mean that Tim will never get signed by the Bills. What is means is that, before that happens, the Bills have to give up on EJ as their anointed one.  That will not happen right away.  However, if EJ plays poorly and the Bills start out the first half of the season with a terrible record, at some point they might give up on him.  At that point, Tebow becomes a viable option as the starter, especially given the alternatives currently on the Bills roster.

Bottom line, we Tebow fans are going to have to sit tight this season and let circumstances play out.  Somebody somewhere is going to crash and burn.  It could be EJ, or it could be somebody else ... but it will happen.