By now you probably know that the Rams lost starting QB Sam Bradford to a season-ending knee injury. The news just leaked out a few hours ago, and speculation has already started about a replacement. Predictably, "sign Tebow" tweets and blog posts have started to appear, along with the usual scornful responses.
I have held back from getting excited at previous openings, but this might be the right time to watch closely. The Rams' circumstances offer 4 good reasons to make a Tebow redemption shot possible:
1. Timing. Usually when a team loses the starting QB to injury, it is in the middle of the regular season. The normal response is to turn to the backup for the remainder of the season. That's what he is there for. However, the Rams are not going to want to bank an entire season on a career backup. They are going to look hard for a proven starter or highly touted prospect while they still have time to bring him on board before the regular season starts.
2. Nobody to Undermine. Most teams won't consider Tim as a backup because of the Sanchize Effect. Bradford being out for the season removes that obstacle. The remaining two QBs on the roster are Shaun Hill, a career journeyman, and Austin Davis, an undrafted free agent from the practice squad. The Rams are not invested in either of them as a franchise prospect, so there is nobody for Tebow's popularity to threaten.
3. Unafraid of the Media. Drafting Michael Sam showed Jeff Fisher and the Rams organization can handle the media spotlight. Having Sam and Tebow on the same team might cause the internet to melt, but that is another discussion.
4. Low Cost. The Rams are in for a massive salary cap hit with Bradford, and they owe him a big paycheck. They might consider trading for another former starter, like Mark Sanchez, or a highly touted starting prospect like Mallett or Cousins. None of those options is going to come cheap, either in salary or in trade cost. Tebow is a free agent so he costs nothing to acquire, and he has already shown he will accept the league minimum salary with no guaranteed money.
Signing Tebow is a risk-free proposition for the Rams. They can bring him in, work him out, maybe get him some time in the final preseason game, and cut him if they don't like what they see. Or they can keep him on the roster to hedge their bets if Shaun Hill or Austin Davis flounder.
System fit is the one big argument against the Rams signing Tebow. Offensive Coordinator Brian Shottenheimer is a traditional West Coast Offense proponent, and Tim's skills are not a good match for that scheme. Still, if the Rams fail to even work him out, that is a pretty strong suggestion that the bias in the league against him may be intractable.
Someone in that organization is at the very least intrigued by him. I have no idea who, but they've been around for at least the last few seasons. You may recall that the Rams were interested in making a deal for Tebow when the Broncos put him on the trading block in 2012, but they failed to put an offer together before the deal was sealed with the Jets. Then last year it was widely reported that Tebow's name came up in discussion midseason when Bradford was injured last year. There was no indication though of how long he was in the mix before he was ruled out.
ReplyDeleteThis isn't to comment one way or the other on his chances, but at least there may be someone in a position to put his name on the table. First reports, however, suggest that they will take a more conservative route. There seems to be interest in Mark Sanchez; and I suspect they will also consider other backups as well, such as Ponder, Cousins, and Mallett before going to Plan C.
I was never sure how much stock to put in those reports. Like everything, they were twisted around to come out as hostile and scornful of Tim.
DeleteSanchez, Mallett, and Cousins will all cost a draft pick, probably a 2nd or 3rd rounder because the Rams are in a bind and the other party knows it. They might be able to get Ponder for free after the Vikes release him.
One thing is for sure: they will want to move fast. Their first regular season game is 2 weeks from today. That's not much practice.
I'm going to watch @MikeSilver closely. He has good ties to the Rams, and wrote glowingly of them drafting Michael Sam. Of course he was the lead Tebow hater for several years, most notably with his horrid GQ hit piece. But after he got burned badly when the Pats signed Tim, he apparently reconsidered his approach. He professes to hope strongly that Tebow gets another chance. Whether it is genuine or not, who knows, but he has been quite decent since the Pats episode.
Here's an old article about the Rams' reported interest.
Deletehttp://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/10/20/rams-have-discussed-tim-tebow-but-probably-wont-sign-him/
Note Mike Silver was the source of the original report.
DeleteFor the first time in a long time it seems like the reasons for signing Tim outweigh the reasons for not signing him. I think it all boils down to whether by consensus or ultimate authority within the Rams organization will they see it as Ed explained above so well & will they excersise the chutzpah/gumption needed to do so. I would just add about #3 afraid of the media that Sam was a local guy from Missouri & there may have been a reservior of goodwill from the media for him whereas for Tim we know that is usually not the case.
DeleteHere is an interview with Rams GM Les Snead where he discusses Tebow last year. Question on Tebow is at approx 4:30 mark.
ReplyDeleteTo sum it up, Snead says it is about system fit. He observes that league is moving towards non-traditional offensive systems and Tim could be a successful QB in the right system with a team built to leverage his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses. He does sound intrigued, and certainly does not dismiss the prospect. I'm sure being in a division with Seattle and San Francisco has something to do with his appreciation for non-traditional offenses and mobile QBs.
People are making a big deal out of the Rams announcing that backup Shaun Hill will be their starter. Of course he is. They have 2 weeks until the regular season starts. That is like 6 practices with pads. No way a new QB could get on board, learn the playbook, and be credible.
However, it does not mean that they are willing to ride out the season with him. I believe they will bring in some additional options to compete with him or to fall back on if he struggles. It will take them a few days to evaluate the available options. They just found out this afternoon that Bradford was out.
That interview was encouraging. The tone was respectful.
DeleteIf nothing else it's good to see the latest developments reinvigorate the Tebow debate which shows no signs of abating anytime soon. At least amongst the fans.
Does anyone remember when Bill Parcells said finding a good quarterback is not as easy as dialing a 1-800 number??
With Tim being available. This year may be an exception. ;) :)
Just noticed Rams have bye week after third game. That would be natural point early in season to reassess and make changes if Shaun Hill isn't getting it done.
ReplyDeleteRight now they only have 2 healthy QB's on roster. Given their situation, I would think it would be prudent to carry 3 this year. So they ought to be adding one.
Ed: Hope you don't mind my commenting with such regularity. I am not on twitter & this is the best most instructive outlet for me on all things Tebow.
ReplyDeleteOf course we have no idea what may be happening behind the scenes but it looks like the Rams are not in any hurry to shore up their quarterback depth chart. It looks like they may be waiting until final cuts to see how things play out before making any moves. Maybe they think they will be able to get another quarterback without giving anything up.
Tomorrow night is the first live action for Hill since being named the starter. He'll probably be playing against 2nd & 3rd stringers but let's see how he responds to his new roll.
As long as Tim continues to workout the way he is I will continue to believe there will be a breakthrough of some kind.
I welcome your comments! This site is for all of us to collectively think through Tim's situation. Different perspectives are always useful in analysis.
DeleteI think you have summed up the Rams approach accurately. At first I thought they would move fast, but I have rethought that. There was no reason to rush someone in, because there is no way a QB could learn the system by tonight. There will probably be a few QBs released this weekend as part of final cuts, so it makes sense to wait and see who comes on the market.
The hard truth is that no QB, no matter how good, can learn an offensive system in a few weeks. Their best move really is to start the season with Shaun Hill and see how he does. The timing of their break on week #4 is lucky, as it gives them a logical point to make a chance if he flops.
I'm hopeful that no more appealing options arise and Hill struggles. That would make them more inclined to bring in a QB with potential to challenge Hill. They would probably bring him in next week, after final cuts. Watch closely to see if they put one of the 3rd string QBs on practice squad, as that could be an indicator they are making room.
Tim would be a no brainer in that situation. The Rams are in a real money bind and he would work for league minimum wage with no guarantee. There is literally nothing to lose by bringing him in to compete.
Keenum gets a shot and Tim doesn't. I wish I had some explanation based on system or such, but I don't. All I'm really left with at this point is disgust and anger.
ReplyDeleteDon't be upset. Tebow has the ability to be a great NFL QB and has already proven a lot in his short time in the league. With what we're learning about the long-term health effects on players, however, it may be for the best that someone like him doesn't take any more snaps. There is a lot in this world for him to accomplish and while I would love to see him play football for my own selfish reasons as a fan, but if he has more of a life to live and continues to make a positive impact on lots of people (young and old) while living it - then in a bigger context his absence from football is a no-brainer. Football is a great game, but players' legacies fade quickly. The difference he can make in others' lives can last generations.
DeleteOK, so here is my theory. Keenum was picked to improve the backup position, NOT to challenge Shaun Hill for the starter position. For reasons I will discuss in another post, Tim is very unlikely to be considered for a backup position.
ReplyDeleteI had the same thought. It's still frustrating though. We'll know in a few weeks for sure. There aren't any good starting options available.
DeleteI have never subscribed to the belief that Tebow is blackballed. If the Rams don't at least work him out, I may reconsider.
ReplyDeleteTheir opening game yesterday went about as bad as possible. They were completely destroyed by probably the worst team on their schedule. And the remainder of their schedule is brutal. Seattle 2x, San Fran 2x, Denver, Philly. After the first 3 games they have maybe three or four winnable games. If everything goes right they will go 6-10, and that is best case.
They have every pretext they need to ditch the starter, and have zero reason to feel any loyalty or obligation to the backups. The QB situation is wide open, a completely blank slate. There is absolutely no obstacle to bringing in Tebow and trying him out.
The Rams have a good defense on paper, and they say they are a run first, ball control, ground and pound offense. That situation is ideal for the same kind of offense that the Broncos implemented with Tebow in 2011.
Head Coach Jeff Fisher and GM Les Snead are in their third season. That is generally considered the year to get it done or hit the road. They have reached the point where they have no alternatives but Tebow if they want to safe their season.
It really comes down to whether they have the balls to do it.