A Play-by-Play Analysis of Tebow Against the Bucs

This week was another awfully tough week to be a Tim Tebow fan.  His stats from the game were awful, and honestly he looked awful.  However, as Bill Belichick himself pointed out, sometimes what happened is not so obvious unless you understand what was supposed to happen.  With that in mind, I taped the NFL network rebroadcast of the game and watched all of Tim's plays multiple times in slow motion, looking for any glimmer of hope.  Here's what I saw.

What is Belichick up to with Tebow?

There has been a lot of speculation and consternation about why Bill Belichick signed Tim Tebow.  Fans and detractors of Tebow alike have wondered why he was signed and whether he would make the team.

The answer is simple.  Belichick wants to force opponents to spend time preparing for the Read Option instead of preparing for Tom Brady.

What happened to Tebow on Friday?

Authors caveat: this blog post is written for Tebow fans, by a Tebow fan.  If you don't like Tebow and don't think he belongs in the NFL, then do not bother reading further because it will just annoy you.  If you do find yourself annoyed, please do not contact me to tell me how wrong I am. Neither of us is going to change the other's mind, so best to just save yourself the annoyance. You have been warned. 

The past year has been incredibly frustrating for Tebow fans. If there could be anything worse than being forced to watch a full season of the Jets, it was watching the Jets and not seeing Tebow play. Add to that having to follow the odious New York media, then listening to humiliating pronouncements last spring that Tebow was finished in the NFL. Yeah, it has been a tough 12 months in the wilderness.

Tebow fans were elated when he was picked up by the Patriots. Here was the golden opportunity he never had: to develop in an established system, under a highly respected coaching staff, studying under maybe the greatest QB ever. More than anything, it was the simple knowledge that we could turn on the TV and see him play again, even if only for a few quarters in preseason games. After 12 months of waiting, it would be hard to overstate how primed we were to see him play and how hopeful we were that he would excel.

Our hopefulness made his 2013 debut on Friday night doubly difficult to watch.

Quantitative Analysis of Which Teams are Best Fit for Tim Tebow

See below the fold a complete table of Tebow's potential to play with every team in the NFL:

Why no team claimed Tebow on waivers

If you are a dedicated Tim Tebow fan, the past few days may have seemed like a never-ending pile of indignities. First, the Jets drafted Geno Smith. Then the Jets released Tebow. Finally, today at 4pm EST Tebow cleared waivers, with no NFL team claiming him.
Tebow clearing waivers seems especially perplexing. Why did this happen? Does it really mean that no NFL team wants him at all? Ever?
No. His price on waivers was simply too high.

A quick primer on Tebow and the waiver system

If you are a Tim Tebow fan like me, you are scouring the internet for signs of his next destination. If you want to fully understand the process as it unfolds, you need to know how the NFL's rules for released players apply to him.
Because Tebow has less than 4 years in the NFL, he is not classified as a veteran under the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). Therefore, he did not become a free agent immediately when released by the Jets. First, he must go through the waivers process. Here's how that works:

Cutting Tebow before the Draft would be stupid

The latest Tebow-hater theme is how dumb the Jets are for hoping to trade him. Obviously no team would ever give up anything of value for Tebow, so the Jets should just cut him now and be done with it. So the thinking goes.
I'm not sure how many of these people actually believe that, and how many are just taking another cheap and easy shot at Tebow. Heaping scorn and derision on various targets is apparently a major pastime of the Twitterverse and Blogosphere. For example, there are apparently whole online communities devoted to hating Anne Hathaway. Go figure.
However, in the case of Tebow, even national sportswriters have picked up this theme. For that reason, it is worth demonstrating exactly how facile their argument is.

Seahawks to join the "Nuclear Option"

Previously I wrote about The Nuclear Option.  To recap, that rather than accepting a backup job, Tebow should sit out the pre-season and wait for a team's QB depth chart to collapse during the season.  At that point, desperation to save their jobs might override a GM and HC's aversion to the "distraction" that Tebow allegedly brings with him. Several teams are in danger of finding themselves in that situation, mostly due to inaction during the off-season.
However, I did not expect a team to voluntarily move themselves into that category, and certainly not a team that got within one game of the Superbowl. But that is exactly what the Seahawks have chosen to do by trading away Matt Flynn and failing to obtain a suitable replacement.

The power of sleep

Last week I played three soccer games in 24 hours.  On Saturday night, I played a game of 8v8 on an over-20 league.  On Sunday afternoon, I played two regulation games in a row of 11v11 on a full sized soccer field in an over-25 league.  While both leagues are coed recreational leagues, both are also fairly competitive, with many players having played at the college level.  Everyone plays hard, especially in the 11v11 league.

I am 48 years old.  I have only been playing soccer for 3 years.  After the last game, I was physically exhausted, barely able to drive home, sore everywhere but especially in my lower body.

Yet the next day I felt fine.  I had plenty of energy and little soreness anywhere.  I even went to the gym for a squat workout.

So what happened?  Sleep happened.  I went to bed and slept for 10 hours.  I slept until I woke up and could not go back to sleep.

The Nuclear Option revisited

Last month I proposed that Tim Tebow consider the "Nuclear Option".  The premise of that option is that if Tebow cannot get on a team where he has a fair shot to compete for a starting position, he should decline to sign a contact and start the 2013 regular season as a free agent.  While a wildly risky approach, the reward would be the potential for Tebow to take a starting position once one or more teams' QB depth charts collapse during the regular season.  As a free agent he would be available when desperate teams start looking around for a lifeline, and he could pick where he goes, while he would not be able to take the opportunity if he was entrenched as a backup on another team.

Now that the major roster moves are firming up, let's look and see which teams are most likely to discover their plans suck.  Below are the Top 10 teams in draft order for the upcoming draft, and their likely starting and backup QBs.  All of them are there because of mediocre or poor QB play last year, and all of them hope to improve that play this year.

1. Kansas City: Smith / Quinn
2. Jacksonville: Gabbert / Henne
3. Oakland:  Flynn / Pryor
4. Philadelphia: Vick / Foles
5. Detroit: Stafford / Hill
6. Cleveland: Weeden / Hasselbeck
7. Arizona: Palmer / Stanton
8. Buffalo: Kolb / Jackson
9. New York Jets: Sanchez / Garrard
10. Tennessee: Locker / Fitzpatrick

Buying Tebow

Everyone is focusing on whether Tim Tebow will be traded.  But there are several ways for a team to acquire him:

1. Trade - Starting on March 12, any team can trade with the Jets to obtain Tebow.  They will have to give something of value in return, such as draft picks, other players, or cash.  Tebow keeps his existing contract, unless he later agrees to restructure. Most likely the Jets would take the most lucrative offer and not give Tim any say in where he goes.
2. Waivers - Because he has less than 4 years in the league, Tebow is not classified as a veteran by  NFL rules.  Therefore, if he is released by the Jets this year, he goes on the NFL waiver wire system. Each team has 48 hours to decide whether to claim him. The claiming team with the lowest standing last year gets him. Tim has no say in which team he goes to. They pay nothing to the Jets, and Tebow keeps his existing contract.  They can release him at any time, at which time he goes back into waivers. 
3. Free Agency - If nobody claims Tebow on waivers, he becomes a free agent.  Any team can make an offer, and Tim can sign with any team, at any time.  As part of the process the team will negotiate a new contract with Tebow.

Tebow and the Nuclear Option

As NFL teams start to show their hands on their QB plans for 2013, viable paths to a starting job for Tebow are narrowing. The Eagles are keeping Vick, and KC is rumored to have a deal in place for Alex Smith. AZ head coach Bruce Arians recently disparaged the read option and running QBs. The Jags have ruled out Tebow by name. Buffalo appears to be leaning towards a competition between Fitzpatrick and Tarvaris Jackson. Of teams considered to be in need of a new starter, only the Browns are still on the table.
The consensus fallback position for Tebow is backup for an established starter, preferably in a spread option system. While this keeps Tebow in the league as a QB, it may not be the approach most conducive to his goal to be a starting QB.
There are many QBs who can be happy and productive sitting the bench and holding a clipboard for a few million bucks a year. Tebow is not one of them. It will drive him crazy, and history shows it will drive those around him crazy. A year as backup on the Jets nearly wrecked Tebow's career and image. The last thing he needs is another year in a similar situation. Tebow is a warrior and a natural leader, and those qualities do not lend themselves to being a good backup. Competition is like air to Tim, and he will suffocate without it.
Tim's status as a non-veteran constrains his control over where he winds up. Under the terms of the CBA, players with less than 4 seasons in the league do not become free agents when released. They go to the waiver wire instead. The difference is that they do not pick a team; the teams pick them. If more than one team claims a player on waivers, he goes to the team with the lowest standing from the previous season. Only if all teams decline to claim a player does he become a free agent.
There is considerable risk in the waiver process for Tim. He could easily go to a team with no intention of letting him compete at QB. He could go to a team that only wants him as a gadget player, or in the worst case a team could grab him with the intention of forcing him to change positions and become an FB or TE.
Some have suggested the CFL as an option. That would be a terrible mistake. While a few QBs have resurrected their careers in Canada over the years, many more have not. The CFL is not seen as a viable feeder league for the NFL, and even the most successful QBs there usually do not return to the NFL. It would be a step backwards for Tebow, with an uphill battle to return. Were he to struggle at all as a passer in the CFL, it would be fatal to his NFL prospects.
There is one more path Tebow should consider. It carries great risk, but the reward is potentially great as well. In recognition of the danger of blowing up Tim's career if it fails, let's call it the Nuclear Option: Tim Tebow should decline to sign with any team where he cannot compete to start at QB.

Opening Post

The purpose of this blog is to explore and discuss the life of the over-40 competitive athlete. It is dedicated to the spirit of those who refuse to accept the inevitable and age gracefully. If you defiantly force your body to compete with younger athletes when you ought to be watching from the sidelines, this blog is for you. We will cover all topics of interest to the over-40 athlete: training, competition, nutrition, rest and recovery, injuries, psychology, drugs, equipment, and anything else that seems relevant. If you have something you would like to discuss, let me know and I'll write something about it. Even better, send me an article and I'll post it.