Last month I proposed that Tim Tebow consider the "Nuclear Option". The premise of that option is that if Tebow cannot get on a team where he has a fair shot to compete for a starting position, he should decline to sign a contact and start the 2013 regular season as a free agent. While a wildly risky approach, the reward would be the potential for Tebow to take a starting position once one or more teams' QB depth charts collapse during the regular season. As a free agent he would be available when desperate teams start looking around for a lifeline, and he could pick where he goes, while he would not be able to take the opportunity if he was entrenched as a backup on another team.
Now that the major roster moves are firming up, let's look and see which teams are most likely to discover their plans suck. Below are the Top 10 teams in draft order for the upcoming draft, and their likely starting and backup QBs. All of them are there because of mediocre or poor QB play last year, and all of them hope to improve that play this year.
- Kansas City: Smith / Quinn
- Jacksonville: Gabbert / Henne
- Oakland: Flynn / Pryor
- Philadelphia: Vick / Foles
- Detroit: Stafford / Hill
- Cleveland: Weeden / Hasselbeck
- Arizona: Palmer / Stanton
- Buffalo: Kolb / Jackson
- New York Jets: Sanchez / Garrard
- Tennessee: Locker / Fitzpatrick
A few of the teams have made gutsy bets that may pay off. Alex Smith has a solid track record and Matt Flynn has shown potential, so both Kansas City and Oakland may turn their fortunes around. Other teams such as Detroit, Cleveland, and Tennessee chose to stick with their young QBs for another year in hopes they develop, while bringing in a veteran for some depth.
Other teams hopped on the revolving QB carousel, hoping a veteran who has been mediocre elsewhere will suddenly be great. Members of this club include Arizona with Palmer, and Buffalo with Kolb
Most puzzling are the teams that have changed nothing. Insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. Yet Jacksonville, the second worst team in the league last year, right now has the exact same QB depth chart. And the Jets, who were 30th last year in QB play, show every sign of sticking with Sanchez for another season after a sham competition during camp. Right now Philly looks to be on the same path with Vick and Foles, though their expected radical offensive revamp under Kelly makes them a bit of a wildcard.
So which teams are most likely to contend for worst QB play of 2013? With Jacksonville and New York, you can see the train wreck coming a mile away. Buffalo and Arizona are clearly at risk. The remaining teams are likely to limp along through mediocre seasons, with only Kansas City having a serious chance to reverse their trajectory.
Three of the four most at-risk teams have new GM's and head coaches. That immunizes them somewhat from having to salvage their first season. Bizarrely and unfortunately for Tebow, the team most likely to combine an epic QB collapse with a panicking head coach trying to save his job is the Jets. The Nuclear Option is no help there. But other teams might may surprise appearances on the list, either through regressing QB play or season-ending injury.
What will happen? Who knows. Given the lineup of teams most likely to be back on the market for a QB in the middle of the season, it may be best for Tebow to get on somewhere as a backup this year and hope his new team does a better job cultivating his market value than the Jets did, with an aim towards a starting shot in 2014. But he can afford to be selective and avoid another horrible situation like the Jets that further damages his stock.
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