Buying Tebow

Everyone is focusing on whether Tim Tebow will be traded.  But there are several ways for a team to acquire him:

1. Trade - Starting on March 12, any team can trade with the Jets to obtain Tebow.  They will have to give something of value in return, such as draft picks, other players, or cash.  Tebow keeps his existing contract, unless he later agrees to restructure. Most likely the Jets would take the most lucrative offer and not give Tim any say in where he goes.
2. Waivers - Because he has less than 4 years in the league, Tebow is not classified as a veteran by  NFL rules.  Therefore, if he is released by the Jets this year, he goes on the NFL waiver wire system. Each team has 48 hours to decide whether to claim him. The claiming team with the lowest standing last year gets him. Tim has no say in which team he goes to. They pay nothing to the Jets, and Tebow keeps his existing contract.  They can release him at any time, at which time he goes back into waivers. 
3. Free Agency - If nobody claims Tebow on waivers, he becomes a free agent.  Any team can make an offer, and Tim can sign with any team, at any time.  As part of the process the team will negotiate a new contract with Tebow.

Each method has different acquisition and contract costs.  Trading obviously has the highest acquisition cost, since waivers and free agency have no cost.  Trading and waivers have the same contract cost, since Tebow keeps his existing contract.  Free agency probably comes with the lowest contract cost, since Tebow would presumably accept less money for the right opportunity to compete for a QB position.  His marketability means he can supplement his playing income with endorsement income as required.

Obviously any team wanting Tebow prefers to obtain him using the lowest cost method.  However, they have to consider the intentions of 30 other teams.  In particular, any team hoping to claim him on waivers has to consider the possibility not only of someone else trading for him, but also of a team higher on the waiver standings claiming him first.  Stronger teams like NE and SF are very unlikely to get a shot at him on waivers, so they will have to trade for him if they want him, while weaker teams like KC and Jax are virtually assured of getting him for free on waivers if nobody else trades for him first.

Each method also has different risks.  Obviously a trade is the riskiest, because the trade cost cannot be recovered.  Waivers are the least risky, since a team can claim him, give him a look, and then quickly release him back to waivers if they don't like what they see.  Free agency risk depends on the terms negotiated in the new contract.

With Tebow there are also perceived intangible risks.  Tebow has a reputation for "off the charts" intangibles.  There is speculation the Jets brought him in partially to be a leader and stabilizing influence in the locker room.  But his presence had the opposite effect on the Jets, mostly due to a media storm the team actively fueled.  Everyone knows he sells a lot of jerseys, but that revenue was offset by reduced fan attendance after the #1 quarterback had a nervous breakdown from the added pressure and the offense collapsed.  The OC and GM were fired, and many believe the head coach should have been. Oops. Any team staff bringing him in must consider the risk of a repeat, which might get them fired too. A considerable part of Tebow's post-season behavior this year has been directed at showing the league he can be low-key, to reduce that perceived intangible risk.

Those of us who are die-hard Tebow fans still hold out hope of a team going "all in", trading for him to the their starting QB and building an offense around his skillset.  That outcome is probably a fantasy at this point.  His problems with the Jets, and particularly Ryan's decision to go with Greg McElroy over him when Sanchez was benched, introduce too much uncertainty and risk into the situation.  No team is going to commit to starting him until they obtain and evaluate him, at least in training camp and probably in the pre-season.  By then it will be too late to build a system around him.

However, that does not mean that no team will want him, or that he will never play QB, as the haters claim.  Even if he is not judged to be starting caliber right now, very few teams have the luxury of keeping more than one starting caliber QB on their roster.  There are 64 backup QBs on league rosters.  Many of them have never started an NLF game, most of them do not have a winning record, and as far as I know none of them have a playoff victory.  It is absurd to think Tebow is not an upgrade over many of them, even if you accept the harshest critique of his skills.

I think there are four potential outcomes for Tim.  In order of likelihood, they are:

1. A powerhouse team can trade for him to be a gadget player.  Use him as punt protector, running back, slot receiver, and change-of-pace option QB, all the things the Jets wanted but failed to do.  Bill Belichek is consistently mentioned as the prototype for this approach.  He certainly has the creativity to do it, and the reputation to avoid any blowback should he fail.
2. A weak team with no established QB can claim him on waivers to compete for a roster slot.  Hard to see how KC, Arizona, Cleveland, Buffalo, or Jacksonville can lose by grabbing him on waivers to kick the tires.
3. A strong team with an established, mobile QB can trade for him as backup QB.  If your system is built around a QB that can run (SF, Seattle, Wash, Carolina, Philly), there are not a lot of proven backups who have won in the playoffs.
4. The nuclear option: once the season starts and a team's QB depth chart and season implodes, they can bring him in as a free agent to see if he can save the day, because what is the risk once your season is gone anyways?