A Play-by-Play Analysis of Tebow Against the Bucs

This week was another awfully tough week to be a Tim Tebow fan.  His stats from the game were awful, and honestly he looked awful.  However, as Bill Belichick himself pointed out, sometimes what happened is not so obvious unless you understand what was supposed to happen.  With that in mind, I taped the NFL network rebroadcast of the game and watched all of Tim's plays multiple times in slow motion, looking for any glimmer of hope.  Here's what I saw.

Tally of all Tebow snaps

First Possession

#1 - 1st & 10 (shotgun): QB run up middle; 4 yard gain
#2 - 2nd & 6 (under center) - handoff to HB; 3 yard loss
#3 - 3rd & 9 (shotgun) - pass to HB; incomplete

Second Possession

#4 - 1st & 10 (shotgun): (wide snap) screen pass; complete, no gain
#5 - 2nd & 10: deep pass to tight end; incomplete
#6 - 3rd & 10 (shotgun): QB scramble; 17 yards, called back on holding penalty
#7 - 3rd & 21 (shotgun): QB run up middle; 11 yard gain

Third Possession

#8 - 1st & 10 (under center): handoff to HB; 1 yard gain
#9 - 2nd & 9 (shotgun, empty): (high snap - jumped); deep pass; interception

Fouth Possession

#10 - 1st & 10 (under center): handoff to HB; 25 yard gain
#11 - 1st & 10 (shotgun): (high snap - above head); handoff to HB; 1 yard gain.
#12 - 2nd & 9 (under center): play action rollout left; pass; incomplete
#13 - 3rd & 9 (shotgun): screen pass; incomplete

Fifth Possession

#14 - 1st & 10 (under center): play action, deep pass; incomplete
#15 - 2nd & 10 (under center): handoff to HB; 5 yard gain
#16 - 3rd & 5 (shotgun): handoff to HB; 10 yard gain
#17 - 1st & 10 (shotgun): (high snap - over head, jumped, fingertips), QB scramble; 5 yard gain
#18 - 2nd & 5 (shotgun): QB run; 12 yard gain
#19 - 1st & 10: delay of game (intentional - team was in kneel formation).
#20 - 1st & 15: kneel
#21 - 2nd & 15; kneel

Pass play analysis:

1. Play #3: this was a short pass to the halfback coming out of the backfield on the right sideline. It looked like Tebow checked down from his two WRs running slants.  The pocket was collapsing and the DE got an arm on Tim as he threw.  The HB was covered tightly, and the pass hit the ground behind him as he sprinted up the sideline. As best as I can tell, this was not an errant throw, and the ball went where it was aimed.  It appears Tim either expected the receiver to do a comeback, or saw he was covered tightly and threw it away.  Given that the ball was thrown right at the base of the first down marker, my guess is that it as the former, and the QB and HB were not on the same sheet of music for the route.  Verdict: Not an accuracy issue. Without knowing the route, it's impossible to know whether that error was by Tebow or the receiver.
2. Play #4: quick screen left, easy play, but defense was on it.  Bad snap, wide, no effect on play.
3. Play #5: For some reason the rebroadcast did not include this series, so I could not look closely at this play.  Found a few twitter posts saying it wasn't a bad throw.  Here's what Field Yates at ESPN had to say: "One aspect to this play is that the quarterbacks have been able to throw to an area as much as they throw to a specific target because Sudfeld has a big catch radius and good length to reach above or around defenders ... Tebow put the ball in the vicinity of Sudfeld, but the linebacker chasing him in coverage got his hands up on the throw, which was too short. He needs to put it in a spot where Sudfeld can use his frame to make a play on the ball. "  Verdict: not bad, could have been better.  Deep plays are usually low percentage shots anyways.
4. Play #9: Ugggh, this one hurt.  It was about a 20 yard slant route up the seam in the middle.  The snap was high over his head, and he had to jump in the air to catch it.  That put the play in trouble right from the start, since he had to take his eyes off the receivers and defense while he pulled the ball down. The whole point of the shotgun formation is to let the QB watch the coverage develop.  He took a step forward like he was going to run, then decided to stick with the play.  He launched it hard and flat with no wobble, but it was high and behind the receiver, and the deep defensive back jumped up and snagged it. Verdict: bad decision to force it, and inaccurate throw.  He should have checked down after he corralled the snap.  On the bright side, he was decisive and the ball was a rocket.
5. Play #12: He rolled left and had two receivers running out routes to the sideline, one at the line of scrimmage and one at the first down marker.  He could have taken the easy dump to the near receiver for 2 or 3 yards, but held on a bit to try and get it to the deeper receiver for the first down. He usually throws strong on rollouts to the left. Unfortunately the defensive end on that side was unblocked, and came straight at him.  He threw the ball while falling backwards away from the rusher, and it wobbled and fell short.  Verdict: again, not an accuracy issue.  Nobody throws an accurate ball while they are falling backwards.  Could be a decisiveness issue: if he had gotten rid of it a half-second quicker, he would not have been falling when he threw it.
6. Play #13: Bubble screen to the halfback, but a wobbly throw that landed at the receiver's feet.  This is one of those plays that looks like the QB's fault until you go back and watch the replay in slow motion a couple of times.  The halfback and offensive guard collided right after the snap, stripping the OG off his block and allowing the defensive tackle to rush straight at Tim. He threw the ball while falling backwards with the DT pushing him.  Verdict: not an accuracy or decision-making issue.  He was lucky to avoid a sack.
7. Play #14: This was a deep shot with the ball at the 50 and two wide receivers sprinting for the end zone.  The receiver on the left had single coverage while the receiver in the middle had double coverage.  Without all-22 film, it's impossible to know whether the targeted receiver had his coverage beat into the end zone, however, so we don't know if this was a bad decision or not. The throw was short and turned into a jump ball that was almost intercepted.  A close second look again reveals an important detail: the pocket was collapsing and Tim got hit right as he threw the ball.  As his arm was fully cocked back and starting to move forward, the defensive end was wrapping up on his waist.  The resulting wobble likely caused the ball to fall short of the end zone.  Verdict: again, not an accuracy or decisiveness issue.  An NFL receiver takes about 6 seconds to sprint 50 yards in pads, plus a bump at the line.  That's a long time for a pocket to stay clean, but that's what the play called for, and that's how he played it.  Without the hit, he puts the ball in the end zone and the big receiver has the best shot at it.

Other interesting plays:

1. Play #6: You can't consider Tebow's pass game without observing that he always has the ability to do damage on a scramble. He used to be prone to scrambling too often.  In Denver he visibly resisted the urge, probably in obedience to his coaches.  Id like to see Josh McDaniels encourage him to pull it down and take off when he gets a good window. Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson both do this very effectively.  Even Ryan Mallet got 8 yards, and he runs a 5.2 in the 40.  Verdict: 17 yards is a lot better than a sack, thrown away ball, or checkdown.  Too bad about the penalty that brought it back.
2. Play #17: Another high snap, this one so high he had to jump up and at full extension just barely got his fingertips on it, popping the ball about 15 feet into the air.  He had to turn his back to the line to catch it, then instinctively rolled left and scrambled around the end for a 5 yard gain.  Verdict: only a handful of QB's in the league have the athleticism to do what he did. 
3. Play #19: Tebow has had problems with delay of game in the past, so some detractors saw this and said "Aha!  He's at it again."  But if you watch it on replay, it's obvious that the delay was intentional.  Having gotten the first down with about a minute to play, the coaches are doing some situational training on how to run out the clock.  The players wander to the line of scrimmage and casually get into a formation that looks exactly like the "victory" formation they use to take a knee, with Tebow directing various players to line up in different spots.  They are doing enough to avoid appearing egregiously unsportsmanlike, while eating up all the clock and keeping it at first down.  Sure enough, they took a knee for the next two plays to end the game.
4. Plays #1, 7, and 18: all the same play: QB run up the middle from the shotgun.  There are a handful of dangerous running quarterbacks in the NFL: Newton, RGIII, CK, and Russell Wilson.  All of them can do damage when they get outside.  But none of them can go up the middle consistently and stay healthy, which means they can be contained by a disciplined defense that sets the edge to prevent them from getting outside.  Only Tebow has the size, strength, and durability to habitually run between the tackles.  When he does this from a shotgun with an empty backfield, a pass formation, the defense can be caught off guard.  The results: gains of 4, 12, and 11 yards.  

Final Tally:

Pass plays: 9

Incomplete: 6

Complete: 1

Scramble for gain: 2

Sacks: 0

Causes of Incompletions:

Accuracy: 1

Decision: 1

Miscommunication with receiver: 1

Protection failure, QB hit: 3

Conclusions

We have to be careful here not to appear self delusional.  The bottom line results were still egregiously bad, any way you slice it, and results are what count.  However, I do feel better after rewatching the game.  The ugliness was not all Tim's doing.  It was a team effort.

For starters, how about 3 high snaps and 1 wide snap out of 11 shotgun snaps?  The purpose of the shotgun is to allow the QB to watch the coverage develop after the snap.  When the snap is bad, the QB must take his eyes off the field while he corrals the ball.  That impedes his ability to read coverage and make good decisions.  When the ball is so far off that the QB must jump in the air to get it, that affects his ability to get his feet set for an accurate throw.  When one third of shotgun snaps are bad, it will affect the passing game.  While the high snap did not directly cause the interception in play #9, it certainly was a strong contributing factor.

There were also several protection breakdowns, with Tim getting hit as he threw the ball on 3 out of 7 tries. In plays #12 and #13 the rushers were completely unimpeded in their path to the quarterback.  Sometimes a QB gets hit because he holds onto the ball too long; that has been a problem with Tebow in the past.  That was not the case today.  He threw the ball quickly on plays 12 and 13, and he had to hold it and trust his protection on play 14, which was a long bomb.

There was also some hidden good in his performance.  Against the Eagles, he was very indecisive on several plays, holding the ball even while staring at wide open receivers.  That was not a problem against the Bucs.  He held the ball as necessary to let the play develop, then threw the ball.  There were only one or two balls where he held onto it too long, and then it was only a second at most.  He was not sacked at all.  I would assume he got a strong urging from Josh McDaniels to "pull the trigger" and took that to heart.  He also looked more comfortable in the offense, like he was no longer behind the pace of play, even if he looked frustrated with the outcome of plays.

So how will Bill Belichick react to this performance?  I think it depends on his mindset in signing Tim.  

If he brought Tim in for a fair shot to earn a roster spot with his performance in the preseason, then Tim is in trouble.  The performance is just not there yet, and he will have to be very productive in the last two games to turn it around.  That will be tough, since Tim will continue to play with 3rd string linemen and the world's worst center, and he is still learning the playbook.  Even an above-average outing in the last game will not be enough to wash away the stain of the first two games for many, possibly including the coaching staff.

If Coach B brought Tim to develop him, however, then he is looking for progress.  Tim is showing that.  His decisiveness improved markedly from the first game, and inaccuracy was less of an issue.  If he keeps learning the offense, that progress will eventually show itself in game results.  Tim should be OK.

Postscript: Here is what Coach Belichick had to say at a press conference today:

Q: When you look beyond the stat line at the big picture, do you see positive steps for Tim Tebow?
BB: Yeah, definitely. I think if you look at the entire week last week that it will look different than the game did. In some cases, the game looked better for some players; in some cases, the game didn't maybe look as good as some things during the week. We'll just have to try to take all that into consideration.