Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Why no team claimed Tebow on waivers

If you are a dedicated Tim Tebow fan, the past few days may have seemed like a never-ending pile of indignities. First, the Jets drafted Geno Smith. Then the Jets released Tebow. Finally, today at 4pm EST Tebow cleared waivers, with no NFL team claiming him.
Tebow clearing waivers seems especially perplexing. Why did this happen? Does it really mean that no NFL team wants him at all? Ever?
No. His price on waivers was simply too high.

Technically, a team does not claim a player on waivers. They claim the player's contract. If a team were to acquire Tebow under waivers, they would get him at his current salary and terms, without renegotiation.
Tebow received his current contract as a first round draft pick. His salary is first round money, a little over $2.5M this year. The cold hard reality is that teams no longer believe he is a first round talent. His current contract is perceived as a bad deal, and most NFL teams are bargain hunters right now.
Another aspect of his contract may have been an even bigger factor. As widely reported, the Jets owed Denver a $1.5M payment for Tebow's rookie salary advance. Less widely reported is what would have happened to that payment obligation if Tebow had been claimed on waivers. Several Jets beat writers stated today that the Jets will now eat that payment because Tebow cleared waivers. That assertion implies that if Tebow had been claimed off waivers, the claiming team would be required to make the payment instead. I cannot find confirmation of this, but it is the only plausible scenario to explain how the Jets could have been relieved of that expense in the event of a claim.
That means two things. First, Tebow's true cost would be $4M this year, way out of line for a non-starter. Second, if the new team later released Tebow and no other team claimed him, they would still have to make the $1.5M payment to Denver. What team in their right might would take that deal if they had any doubts at all whether Tebow would work out for them?
Now that Tebow has cleared waivers, he is a free agent. His old contract is out the window. He can negotiate a new contract with any team, at compensation levels more in line with his market value, and no sunk costs that have to be paid even if he doesn't make the team. Since his market value has plummeted thanks to the Jets, it's not surprising that most teams would opt to wait and get him at a fair price with little risk.
In reality, Tim Tebow clearing waivers is great news. Had he been claimed, he might have gotten stuck in a bad situation where he had little possibility of ever competing as QB. Now he is free to seek the best opportunity to play, with a coach that appreciates his talents and is willing to treat him fairly. He can discount his salary to make himself as appealing as possible, and decline to negotiate with teams where his playing prospects would be poor.

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