As NFL teams start to show their hands on their QB plans for 2013, viable paths to a starting job for Tebow are narrowing. The Eagles are keeping Vick, and KC is rumored to have a deal in place for Alex Smith. AZ head coach Bruce Arians recently disparaged the read option and running QBs. The Jags have ruled out Tebow by name. Buffalo appears to be leaning towards a competition between Fitzpatrick and Tarvaris Jackson. Of teams considered to be in need of a new starter, only the Browns are still on the table.
The consensus fallback position for Tebow is backup for an established starter, preferably in a spread option system. While this keeps Tebow in the league as a QB, it may not be the approach most conducive to his goal to be a starting QB.
There are many QBs who can be happy and productive sitting the bench and holding a clipboard for a few million bucks a year. Tebow is not one of them. It will drive him crazy, and history shows it will drive those around him crazy. A year as backup on the Jets nearly wrecked Tebow's career and image. The last thing he needs is another year in a similar situation. Tebow is a warrior and a natural leader, and those qualities do not lend themselves to being a good backup. Competition is like air to Tim, and he will suffocate without it.
Tim's status as a non-veteran constrains his control over where he winds up. Under the terms of the CBA, players with less than 4 seasons in the league do not become free agents when released. They go to the waiver wire instead. The difference is that they do not pick a team; the teams pick them. If more than one team claims a player on waivers, he goes to the team with the lowest standing from the previous season. Only if all teams decline to claim a player does he become a free agent.
There is considerable risk in the waiver process for Tim. He could easily go to a team with no intention of letting him compete at QB. He could go to a team that only wants him as a gadget player, or in the worst case a team could grab him with the intention of forcing him to change positions and become an FB or TE.
Some have suggested the CFL as an option. That would be a terrible mistake. While a few QBs have resurrected their careers in Canada over the years, many more have not. The CFL is not seen as a viable feeder league for the NFL, and even the most successful QBs there usually do not return to the NFL. It would be a step backwards for Tebow, with an uphill battle to return. Were he to struggle at all as a passer in the CFL, it would be fatal to his NFL prospects.
There is one more path Tebow should consider. It carries great risk, but the reward is potentially great as well. In recognition of the danger of blowing up Tim's career if it fails, let's call it the Nuclear Option: Tim Tebow should decline to sign with any team where he cannot compete to start at QB.
The risk of the Nuclear Option is obvious. It is entirely possible no team would accept those terms and he would start the season playing for nobody. Sounds crazy, right? Didn't I just say that Tebow needs to play? Missing training camp and not being on a team to start the season would put him even further from his goals, and expose him to even more ridicule. He might even never play again.
As is often the case, with higher risk comes higher potential reward. Understanding that reward requires taking a long view of the season. As Mike Tyson once said, everyone has a plan until they get hit. All 32 NFL teams will go into the 2013 season thinking they have a solid QB plan. Every year, some of those teams see their plans fail and their seasons disintegrate due to injuries, poor performance, and lack of depth.
Some examples in 2012 included Arizona, Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals started the year as playoff contenders, but went thru 4 starters when Kolb went down. The Jaguars confirmed their franchise QB was not starting caliber. Kansas City just collapsed. The Steelers were on track for the playoffs until their elite QB was hurt and his backup failed to win key games.
The same thing will happen to 4 or 5 teams this year, and when it does they will scramble madly to find other options to salvage their season. Because teams spend some time in denial before accepting reality, the scrambling often happens after the NFL trade deadline on Oct 31. In that case, the only viable option is to work out free agent QBs in the hopes of finding an overlooked veteran for short term help.
If Tebow is playing backup somewhere, he will be unavailable to these teams. However, if he is not on contract, he will be available when desperate head coaches start grasping for lifelines to save the season and their jobs. When that happens, there will not be many other healthy QBs available with winning records as starters and playoff experience. Even less will have the proven ability to step in and infuse a losing team with a winning attitude.
Tebow has proven he is a turnaround artist. He has the leadership, competitive fire, and will to lead a struggling team away from the abyss. Several teams will face that abyss this year, and when they do Tim will not able to ride to the rescue if he is reprising his role as clipboard holder or punt protector for some other team. If he is able to step in and repeat what he did with the Broncos, his ability to start in the NFL will be undeniable.
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