The past year has been incredibly frustrating for Tebow fans. If there could be anything worse than being forced to watch a full season of the Jets, it was watching the Jets and not seeing Tebow play. Add to that having to follow the odious New York media, then listening to humiliating pronouncements last spring that Tebow was finished in the NFL. Yeah, it has been a tough 12 months in the wilderness.
Tebow fans were elated when he was picked up by the Patriots. Here was the golden opportunity he never had: to develop in an established system, under a highly respected coaching staff, studying under maybe the greatest QB ever. More than anything, it was the simple knowledge that we could turn on the TV and see him play again, even if only for a few quarters in preseason games. After 12 months of waiting, it would be hard to overstate how primed we were to see him play and how hopeful we were that he would excel.
Our hopefulness made his 2013 debut on Friday night doubly difficult to watch.
Tim did not just fail to light up the field. For a good portion of the game, he stunk it up. It was not all bad, but on pure passing plays he was mostly bad. His decision-making was excruciatingly slow and his accuracy was poor. Most disheartening after an off-season spent with QB gurus, his mechanics were as bad as ever, with the same slow looping hitch in his delivery on several throws.
To long time critics, this was proof positive of what they have been saying all along: that Tebow will never be an NFL QB. That no amount of coaching and practice can improve his decision-making and accuracy enough. That he simply lacks the genetic makeup to play the position. Honestly, the first 3 plays of last night made even some of his fans if they were right.
Except here’s the thing: Tim has been decisive and accurate before, against better opponents with much more at stake. Two seasons ago he threw for 316 yards against the number one ranked NFL defense in a playoff game. The Steelers stacked the box and dared him to beat them with his arm, so he did. Take a look and tell me if this guy is indecisive:
There must be something more to last night than a complete lack of talent and ability, because Tebow has shown talent and ability before. So why did he look so bad last night, and can he get better?
First, remember how new the Patriots offensive system is to Tebow. He signed with the team in June. He had about 30 days to study the playbook. He had 10 days of practice on the field with his new team. That would be tough for any quarterback. A couple of factors make it even worse for Tim. First, the Patriots have a notoriously complex system, built up over 13 years of coaching continuity. Second, Tebow is known to be dyslexic and struggle with book learning. He learns best by doing things hands-on, and he simply has not had enough reps on the field to learn the playbook well.
I believe his newness to the system explains much of his indecisiveness. He started off very indecisive in training camp being as well. According to the beat reporters covering camp, he has shown steady improvement over the last two weeks of practice. It is not unexpected that his comfort level would regress under the pressure and speed of his first game in the new system.
One of the former players doing color commentary on the game said something very profound about receivers:
"If you are walking from the huddle thinking about what route to run, you are going to fail. You have to already know what route to run, and be thinking of how to run it."That statement applies even more to a QB, who must anticipate the actions of multiple receivers and the entire defense. If Tebow is going to the line still trying to mentally process what routes to look for and what kind of throw to make, he will not be able to focus on reading the defense, making a quick decision, and getting the ball out fast and well placed. He has to already know what to expect and what to do, so he can be scanning the defense for signs of weakness as he leaves the huddle. If he's thinking about the mechanics of the play, he won't be able to "be in the moment."
Of course some of Tebow's indecisiveness can be explained by the fact that he is, well, indecisive at times. This has happened in all the offensive systems he has played in (4 systems in 4 years, if you are counting). John Elway famously urged him to "pull the trigger" before the playoff game against the Steelers (he did, by the way). Yet during his short season with the Broncos his decisiveness did improve as he learned that system, as evidenced most notably by his playoff performance against the Steelers.
What about his accuracy problems? Virtually everyone in the league acknowledges that Tebow has problems with his throwing mechanics, and that these problems cause a slow delivery and inconsistent accuracy. He just spent the entire offseason working with Craig Weinke, leading some fans to hope those issues had been "fixed". Yet that inconsistent accuracy and looping delivery were on display during several of his throws on Friday. Why hasn't he fixed that?
It was always unrealistic to expect or hope for a magic cure. You cannot change performance of such a complex physicial skill with some pointers on form and a few drills. Tebow has to reprogram his body from a previous throwing motion ingrained by 15 years of practice. He has to achieve complete muscle memory, meaning he can throw properly without consciously thinking about it. Otherwise he will fall back into his old habits as soon as he is under pressure and cannot focus on throwing correctly.
An old axiom of training says it takes 10,000 repetitions of an action to become muscle memory. To overcome his previously ingrained throwing motion, it may take several times that number of repetitions, possibly up to 50 thousand practice throws to completely eradicate his old motion. Now consider that a QB can throw about 200 passes a day without risking overuse injury. That means that Tebow needs at least 50 throwing days for the corrections to take hold, and probably closer to 250 days of practice to completely lock in the new motion. That's basically a full year of hard practice.
This means that Tim's new throwing motion likely has a foothold, but it is by no means permanently ingrained yet. For some time it is likely to return under duress. Hopefully repetition will make his mechanics better and more consistent. and with those consistent mechanics will come improved accuracy. But the bottom line is that fixing his throwing motion will take at least a year, and he is still relatively early in that process.
Interestingly enough, Tim's accuracy and consistency showed improvement during the first 2 weeks of training camp, according to camp reporters. This suggests that his throwing motion also degraded as he struggled to learn the new system. As he grew more comfortable with the system, he relaxed and his mechanics improved. Anyone who ever played golf can relate to that. The same dynamic may have been at work during the first preseason game; his lack of understanding of the new system may have prevented him from focusing keeping good form.
A few other factors may have contributed to his poor performance. In an effort to simplify his initial workload, he was reportedly given plays with a single receiver instead of a progression. That sounds great in theory, but it also puts the QB in a bind. The whole point of progressions is that a QB can pick from the best of several choices. If the QB is only given one choice, and that choice is bad, then he is stuck holding onto the ball and waiting. As Tim learns the system and can be given plays with more complex routes, he may have more opportunities to get the ball out quickly.
Finally, there is the issue of mental pressure. Not too much pressure, but too little. Long-time followers of Tebow know that his play improves under duress. His numerous last-minute comebacks in are not just a freak coincidence. In Denver, he had a 4th quarter QBR rating of 110. They don't call it Tebow Time for nothing. He is one of those guys who needs extreme stress to get to his peak playing potential. Well, garbage time in the first pre-season game when your team is winning by 20 points is about as non-stressful as it gets in the NFL. Even the announcers were struggling to stay awake. It's hard to imagine a game environment less conducive to Tebow playing well. Now that's not to excuse him playing poorly; professionals play and practice well all the time, so Tebow has to fix that. But it does help to remember that he'll get better as the stakes rise, not worse like so many other quarterbacks.
EDIT: In his interview on Aug 13, Tebow himself implied another explanation for his first few passes: lack of warmup time. When Mallett went down, Tebow had been standing on the sidelines for nearly a full half. He had to run in and play without any chance to get loose. The first two plays were passes. The first was way off target and was easily his worst pass. The second, to Sudfield down the seam, was better but was just slightly off. So consider this: would you expect a major league pitcher to go into a game and throw strikes without any warmup?
So what will happen over the next few weeks? Will we see improvement?
I think there is a good chance that as he learns the system, his decision making will improve markedly. That would mirror the process that reporters have seen in practice. Hopefully we will see clear signs of improvement from week to week during the 4 preseason games.
Less certain is whether his mechanics and accuracy will improve as he becomes more comfortable in the system. I hope it will, but we should expect that improvement to be slower and less steady. More likely we will see increasing stretches of acceptable mechanics and accuracy, with with some bouts of inconsistency. It will probably take the entire season to see marked and visible improvement. Hopefully we will see that improvement.
Does that mean Tim will get cut at the end of this preseason? Doubtful. Belichick and McDaniels knew what they were getting with Tebow. They understood he was a long term project, and have probably already accepted that the jury will be out for most of this season on the results. Also, I think Coach Belichick may have another Tebow card up his sleeve for this year, which will more than justify keeping him on the roster.
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