So far, everything is proceeding as I have foreseen (bonus points if you can name that movie). The season is not even half over, and 9 teams do not have the same starting QB they began the season with:
- Rams: lost Sam Bradford to season-ending knee injury. Backup Kellen Clemens starting.
- Browns: benched Brandon Weeden, then lost Brian Hoyer to season-ending knee injury. 3rd stringer Jason Campbell starting.
- Bucs: benched and released Josh Freeman. Rookie backup Mike Glennon starting.
- Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert out for several weeks with injury; backup Chad Henne starting.
- Vikings: benched Christian Ponder for Josh Freeman. Freman out with concussion so Ponder starts again.
- Bills: EJ Manuel out for 6 to 8 weeks with knee injury. Backup Thad Lewis starting.
- Texans: Matt Schaub out with ankle injury. Undrafted rookie backup Case Keenum starting.
- Bears: Jay Cutler out for 4 weeks with groin tear. Backup Josh McCown starting.
- Eagles: Vick out for several weeks for injury. Backup Nick Foles is out with a concussion. Third stringer Matt Barkley starts if both are out.
Seriously, the Rams thing has put many of us over the edge. Til now we have accepted various explanations and tried to be patient. However, watching the Rams bring in a cast of bums with demonstrably worse performance than Tebow is more than we can bear. So just what the heck is going on, and why can't Tim get a job in the NFL? Everybody has their theory, but nobody really knows. Here is a rundown of some possible explanations:
1. Tim has been blacklisted. The NFL is a competitive league and self-interest trumps all other considerations. If a GM thought he could win with Tim, he would be more than happy to thumb his nose at the powers that be. Unlikely
2. Tim is not good enough. Most Tebow haters go straight to this, of course, but it's pretty easy to disprove. Simply do a comparison of Tim's career stats to the QBs hired instead, who presumably were good enough. Brady Quinn lost a head-to-head quarterback competition with Tim in Denver, and has a losing record in Kansas City. His career passer rating of 64.4 is 10 points lower than Tebow's career passer rating of 75.3, and Quinn is not a running threat. Unlikely
3. Nobody wants the circus in town. While this is undoubtedly a consideration, I generally consider it overstated. If a team thought they could win with Tim, they would ignore the media. Bill Belichick gave a seminar on how to do that this summer. What kind of questions do you think a head coach would rather be getting asked: questions about Tim or questions about why the team can't win? Unlikely
4. Tim is waiting on the right situation. It is possible that Tim has declined invitations unless he has a fair shot at competing to start for a supportive coaching staff. Given the damage that the Jets situation did to his career, that would be smart. Also, there is still a slim chance that Tim is working on his mechanics at the behest of Josh McDaniels and is declining other offers in anticipation of being called back to the Pats at some point. With any other team that would be crazy, but Tim just might trust Belichick and McDaniels enough to do so if asked. Possible
5. Tim is not a good system fit. Tim is not a classic passer, and does best in a system built for a mobile QB, especially one with a heavy dose of read option. Unfortunately, most of the teams who have lost quarterbacks use some variation of the west coast offense or another pass-heavy system. Probable
6. Tim is a bad choice for backup. First, his skillset is different from most other QBs, so the gameplan and playbook would need to change. That is not practical in the middle of a game. Second, if the starter struggles, everyone wants Tim to play, and it causes controversy and distraction. The Jets learned this the hard way. Bring him in to start, or not at all. Probable
7. There is not enough time to learn the playbook. Most teams have turned to their backup when their starter was injured or benched. This year, only the Vikings have tried to bring in a new starter from outside with only one week of practice. The result was abject failure and unceasing mockery. Think any other coaches want to look like Leslie Frazier did? Highly Probable
The real answer probably varies by team and situation. I believe the overriding factor in most cases is the lack of time available for a new quarterback to learn the system, coupled with the need to install new plays to maximize Tim's output. The combination of the two factors is just too much to undertake when there are less risky options. Most teams will turn to the backup QB already on the roster, because he knows the playbook and has been practicing with the team. With the exception of the Vikings, that has been the pattern so far. The other quarterbacks hired have been backups to the backup, so the team doesn't have to convert a running back into a QB in case of injury.
Let's take the Rams. They use the west coast offense, a complex system that relies on precise timing and quick decisions. A new quarterback with no previous WCO experience cannot jump in and master that offense in a few days. Kellen Clemens with 3 months of practice probably has a better chance of winning than Peyton Manning with 3 days to learn the new playbook. Of course now they need someone to back up Clemens in case he gets hurt. I do not believe for one minute that Jeff Fisher thinks Brady Quinn is better than Tim Tebow, but Fisher needed someone fast. Quinn was available, experienced, and unlikely to have fans chanting his name the first time Clemens throws an interception.
Does that mean the Nuclear Option has failed? No, the timing is just not right. Several teams are not quite desperate enough ... yet. A few teams have discovered their backups to be surprisingly serviceable, like the Bills with Thad Lewis. However, others will be reminded in the next few weeks that their backups were backups for a reason. They will also realize the tomato cans they brought in as emergency replacements were free for a reason too.
Both the Rams and Browns have bye weeks coming up, the Browns in week 10 and the Rams in week 11. That break would give them an extra week of practice to integrate a new QB and tweak their offense if necessary. Both teams can see what their backups do in weeks 8 and 9, and hope to be pleasantly surprised. If not, they may still have one last chance to bring in another starter to try to salvage their season.
Return of the Jedi...
ReplyDeleteMallett to Cleveland... Tebow to N.E.
ReplyDeleteWe'll know in 6 days.
DeleteI hope so, for Tim's sake. I agree w/ the sentiment that Tim long-term would do best behind Brady while continuing to learn and grow. All of these other quick fix solutions are dangerous to ANY QB's career, not just Tebow's.
DeleteHowever.....I still personally do not rule out the blacklist possibilities. Sure, it MAY not be a league-wide mandate but it is truly possible a mandate or more probably an unwritten agreement between a few ball clubs. Too many things stink otherwise. For one, after the Jets released him, why did no other teams take a gamble on him and let him compete? We all know he's accomplished a good deal in the short term he's been allowed to play in the NFL. There are other things that didn't/don't smell right but that's one of them.
It seems to me the NFL does not like HIGHLY OUTSPOKEN Christians and especially one's who have the persona to be more popular than even the NFL itself. There's a definitive bias against Christians across the once free America, and it only continues to grow.
As a Christian, I could not disagree more with the argument that Tim is being persecuted for his Christianity when there is a history of outspoken Christians that have thrived in the NFL. I've also heard claims that the media wants him out of the NFL due to his perceived political influence, which is absolutely ridiculous. We are talking about one of the most popular and admired athletes on the planet. The media wants nothing more than for Tim to establish himself somewhere so that he can continue driving stratospheric ratings. I'm sorry to be blunt, but to drag religious and political agendas into the matter smacks of paranoia. Christianity does not need Tim Tebow to be welcomed open-armed into the NFL in order to prove that it can thrive in a complex world. This isn't about scoring points in a culture war. It's about a young guy trying to get his footing on solid ground in a League that doesn't quite know what to do with him.
DeleteOnce again, Kathryn, well-said & ITA.
DeleteFor all the conspiracy theorists, there's a huge difference between there being individuals in the NFL & media who don't like Tim b/c of his faith and an actual 'conspiracy'. If there are some owners or GMs who don't want Tim b/c of his faith, that simply removes *some* teams as potential employers of Tim, not *all* of them. There are other very logical reasons for the remaining teams to be passing up Tim (see Ed's above blog post), just as there are very logical reasons for people in the media who don't dislike Tim to run articles talking about his days in the NFL being over. The media makes their money on webhits & viewers. Right now, talking about Tebow's NFL days being over & the latest Tebow rumor-mongering are the primary excuses for the media to mention Tim & get the accompanying cash that comes from doing so. It doesn't mean they're all out to destroy him, even if some people in the media clearly wouldn't mind doing just that.
Also, conspiracy theorists, please watch approximately 5:00-5:30 of this video-does this seem like a league that's bursting w/persecution of Christians?:
Deletehttp://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-films-presents/09000d5d8261f71d/The-book-of-Tebow
I concur with Kathryn and Brooke. Many people hate Tim because of his outspoken beliefs. However, many more people love him for it. On balance his status as one of the most popular athletes in America speaks for itself. To portray the NFL as a secret cabal of liberal atheists makes little sense. I would be willing to bet that the population of NFL owners, GM's, and head coaches is fairly conservative and religious relative to the nation as a whole. Billionaires, business executives, and aggressive old white men are not the natural demographic of Occupy Wall Street.
DeleteI deleted both of your posts. Anyone who believes 911 Truther theories is incapable of rational thought. It distresses me that you are a Tebow fan.
DeleteAs usual...outstanding!
ReplyDeleteReally enjoy your blog. It always gives us alot to think about. Hope the New England theory is true. A stable well run organization where Tebow's skills would be understood, appreciated & nurtured would be the best place for him to flourish.
ReplyDeleteThanks. I agree fully on the Pats. I still hold out hope that it is true, but it does feel more like wishful thinking as time drags on. On the other hand, it is interesting that they do not have a 3rd QB on the practice squad. While Belichick does not always carry 3 QBs on the roster, he usually keeps a 3rd one on the PS. Last year was the first year he did not. It could be that they are comfortable relying on Edelman, who played QB in college. But still, one of several facts that make me wonder.
DeleteThat is interesting about not having a 3rd QB on the practice squad, I never even considered that. One thing that made me curious as to the Pats motives concerning Tim was, at the time they made their cuts I remember Belichick saying he was making the cuts based on what was best for the Pats in 2013. It made me wonder if he was qualifying that statement for some reason while thinking about Tim towards the future..I may be reading too much into this. I guess time will sort it all out.
DeleteEd, the New England theory has always felt like wishful thinking, but at least as far as conjecture goes it's reasonably logical. Most media analysts speculated at the outset that he'd been signed as a developmental player and would make the roster. It's still not out of the question to believe that that was indeed the original plan before emergent needs on offense made it impractical. If that's the case, a scenario in which he's training in expectation of a callback remains viable, and not necessarily dependent on whether they find a trade partner for Mallett. That he immediately moved to Los Angeles instead of one of his more familiar training haunts and remains there working with House nearly two months later suggests, if nothing else, an element of instruction. It doesn't prove anything, but neither does it contradict anything. In other words, while we shouldn't hold our breaths, we shouldn't give up on the idea either.
DeleteAs far as other opportunities are concerned, at this point it is difficult to envision a scenario with any of these struggling teams that would be beneficial to Tim. In fact, accepting a desperation offer from a mismanaged team looking for its 5th starting QB could do more damage than good. A desperate team is not going to be prepared to make the most of Tim's playing style. Further, I suspect that by the time most of these teams hit "rock bottom" the season will be lost anyway, rendering all but the most crucial personnel transactions pointless. I'd love nothing more than to see him make his way back into the League, but regrettably his best chance may be to keep grinding and look ahead to 2014, when teams - in New England and elsewhere - have greater flexibility and leeway to consider incorporating him into their plans.
I agree on the wishful thinking. However, as you have observed, it does tie up a lot of unexplained loose ends. Along those lines, it does provide an alternative explanation for the inexplicable unwillingness of any team to consider Tim under any circumstances so far. It also explains his near complete absence of public presence, to include no interviews at all.
DeleteI view him going to a struggling team as a high-risk, high reward proposition. Yes, he could tank along with the team. However, he could also have a repeat of Denver, which was also a struggling 1-4 team when he took over. If he were to salvage even a 50% win record from the Jaguars or Browns, it would be impossible to continue the revisionist history about Denver. Once may be luck or coincidence, but twice is a trend.
I also happen to put more value on leadership and will to win than on technical skill. Those teams are not inherently bad. They have their share of good athletes. They lack fighting spirit, and I have faith that Tim would bring that.
Plus, as a practical matter, a good rushing attack is easier to build than a good passing attack. A successful passing offense is a finely tuned system that requires talent and exceptional coaching. A lot of coaching staffs delude themselves into thinking they are more exceptional than their performance supports. Many of them would be better off getting 5 mean linemen and a couple of fast running backs and trying to batter down the front doors rather than futile attempts to mimic Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. As the old adage goes, KISS.
"It also explains his near complete absence of public presence, to include no interviews at all."
DeleteI found this interesting as well.
"If he were to salvage even a 50% win record..."
My fear is that he wouldn't have the opportunity. By the time a team calls him up it's at the point where the coaches are throwing anything at the wall to see what sticks. He'd have to learn the offense in short order and then rack up a couple of wins right out of the gate to avoid getting benched in favor of the guy he replaced. Same thing is already happening in Cleveland and Minneapolis (the optics of the latter assisted by a concussion).
"Plus, as a practical matter, a good rushing attack is easier to build than a good passing attack..."
Good point.
You have all made some great points in your commentaries. This is such a fascinating subject to discuss...Jacksonville's intrasigence has no explanation...Good leaders should be able to put there egos aside, admit failure & change course in mid-stream. Especially when there plans have gone so horribly bad...Although they still say they want to build the team through the draft..Maybe some teams are afraid of Tim's overwhelming presence & simply cannot handle it. I still believe he will wind up in New England, if not this year then next. One caveat would be is if Josh McDaniels were to become a head coach somewhere. He may want to give Tim the chance he deserves.
DeleteBob, I am enjoying the conversation as well. Ed always provides a solid analysis to reference, and it's rare for Tim Tebow and civil discourse to occupy the same webpage. I'm looking forward to more of both.
DeleteAgreed Kathryn
DeleteWhile we are attributing powers of near-omnipotence to Bill Belichick, consider this. Keeping Tim on the team would lessen his negotiating leverage for Mallett, because other teams would perceive that New England was more able to part with him. If they didn't have another QB on the roster, other teams would be less inclined to low-ball their offers because they would know that only a very serious offer would be considered. Am I reaching? Oh yeah. But we'll know for sure in 5 days.
DeleteSome regional sports reporter out of Alabama just tweeted that Jimmy Sexton reached out to the Rams after Bradford's injury and was declined. Don't know how credible it is, but if true it would obviously contradict the notion that he's waiting for a call from New England.
DeleteGood write Reposted to the tebowzone.net
ReplyDeleteSpecifically about the Rams, there was another big reason not to bring in Tebow besides bad system fit, not knowing the system, etc & it's probably the same reason Tebow didn't get to start in NY last year: MONEY. Here's Bradford's contract info from rotoworld.com:
ReplyDeleteSam Bradford Quarterback
7/30/2010: Signed a six-year, $78 million contract. The deal contains $50 million guaranteed, including his base salaries in years one through four, a $2.88 million first-year roster bonus, and a second-year "signing" bonus of $17.974 million. Another $8 million is available through incentives based on playoff, Super Bowl, and Pro Bowl appearances. 2013: $9 million, 2014: $14.015 million, 2015: $12.985 million, 2016: Free Agent
Just as Sanchez wouldn't have been untradeable at his salary & mediocre performance, Bradford would also be untradeable for the same reasons. So if Tebow were to succeed & become their starter, the Rams would have to cut Sam & would owe him $27 mil over the next 2 years-& take the accompanying cap hit. No wonder Mike Silver immediately said he didn't think they'd sign Tebow.
"Just as Sanchez wouldn't have been untradeable"
DeleteObviously I meant 'tradeable'.
Brooke: If Tim was succesful as the starter would he not generate more revenue just by being who he is with merchandise ticket sales etc... to dwarf what the Rams would owe on Bradford's contract.
DeleteTim has already shown he is willing to work for the league minimum. Bradford's injury would provide an easy premise to bring Tim in for the remainder of the season, while making it clear he is gone once Bradford recovers.
DeleteI do not buy the premise of a bunch of hyper-competitive coaches thinking "we can't bring Tebow in, because if he wins then we'll be totally screwed!" They want to win, and if they thought Tim gave them the best chance to do that, they would find a way around the money and succession issues.
Tim signed with N.E. for the league minimum knowing he would not play unless Brady (and presumably Mallett) went down and with $2 million in playing incentives the following year (presumably after Mallett was gone).
DeleteAre you sure he would be willing to start and risk his health for the league minimum?
I think Tim would play starting QB for gas money and free Gatorade.
DeleteBob: That's a good point. I honestly don't know enough about the revenue-sharing system that goes on in the NFL to answer that. The Rams could certainly make up for at least some of Bradford's contract w/the extra money that Tebow would bring in if he was successful, so there's something to what you say.
Delete"Tim has already shown he is willing to work for the league minimum. Bradford's injury would provide an easy premise to bring Tim in for the remainder of the season, while making it clear he is gone once Bradford recovers."
Ed: I've only been following the NFL since Tebow was drafted, so you undoubtedly know a thousand times more about the NFL & those who run it than I do. But I have to disagree w/this premise for one basic reason: I can't imagine anyone in the NFL not named Belichick or Harbaugh having either the intelligence or the b@lls to do that. To me, most NFL guys seem to be much more afraid of looking foolish or being ridiculed than interested in actually winning. But, as I said, you know much more about this than I do, so you're probably right.
"I think Tim would play starting QB for gas money and free Gatorade."
DeleteHere we definitely agree, Ed (except it would be FRS, not Gatorade). In fact, if the right team/HC came calling, I think Tim would even pay them to get to play.
Brooke, I claim no special knowledge, only the time and inclination to attempt to analyze what is happening instead of simply raging against it.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDeleted and re-posted for clarification.
ReplyDeleteMerchandise, ticket sales and broadcast revenue are only relevant in that each year they factor into the league-wide salary cap set by the NFL. The team could indirectly make up every lost dime of a player's salary via these and other revenue sharing income pipelines, but until another team agrees to acquire that player's contract his salary still counts against the original team's salary cap. And the original team will always be on the hook for the player's signing bonus regardless of whether he is traded, injured or whatever. So the concern over salary is less about the team's overall bottom line,and more about how a player transaction impacts the salary cap. That said, I agree with Ed that if a team really wanted to bring a player in they'd get fancy with their accounting and make it work.
When the team has sufficient leverage, contracts can be structured so the impact on the salary cap is negligible. Tim's contract at New England was structured so that he could be paid a weekly rate for each game he was on the roster. $20 grand a week is not going to bust any team's cap.
DeleteSpeaking of failing teams, Tampa is on the way to being 0-7 tonight by losing to Carolina. Might as well call them 0-8, since they face Seattle next week.
ReplyDeleteEveryone expects Schiano to be fired soon. Billboards in town demand it, and former Bucs players are badmouthing him openly.
I wouldn't put it past him to try a desperation move. There are a lot of Gators fans in Tampa, probably as many as in Jacksonville.
I was about to say it's just a two possession game, but then I left for a minute. Never leave for a minute.
DeleteED: I noticed your profile said you live in Valrico. I spend most of my time in Destin & sometime in Naples...I am a big Tampa Bay Rays fan & love the way Joe Maddon manages the Rays with all the personnel shuffling. He gets more out of his players than any manager I have ever seen..I have envisioned what it would be like if Tebow were to pair with an open minded unemcumbered free thinking coach similar to this. Someone who is flexible & would allow Tim to play freely where we know he excells. Improvisation on the field is lacking in football. One can always hope.
ReplyDeleteI go to a few Rays games every year because my business gets tickets, but I can't say that I follow them closely. I know there's a guy named Evan Longoria who hits a lot of home runs but is apparently not related to Eva Longoria. And that's about it.
DeleteWhat about philadelphia?
ReplyDeleteTebow would be great in Philly
ReplyDelete