The Nuclear Option plays out

Last spring, in a blog post titled The Nuclear Option, I argued that Tim Tebow would be better to start this season not on an NFL roster.  I based my premise on the following assumptions:

1. No team would offer Tim a fair shot at competing for a starting position.
2. As a backup, he risked a repeat of the Jets debacle.
3. Several teams would lose their starting QB to injuries in the first half of the season.
4. Several more teams would discover their hoped-for starting QB stunk.
5. By midseason, several teams would be looking for a QB to salvage their season.
6. A desperate coach trying to save his job might be willing to take the risk with Tim.
7. If Tim was on another roster, he would be unavailable to take that opportunity to play.

So now we are 1/4 of the way through the season, and  the nuclear scenario has played out even faster than expected.  Below is a list of NFL teams whose franchise QB plans have already self destructed:

• Buffalo - First round rookie EJ Manuel was doing well, but has hurt his knee and is out for 4 to 8 weeks.  This week they will start Jeff Tuel, an undrafted rookie, but they plan to bring in a veteran QB as a temp fill by next week.  HC Doug Marrone is in his first year.  The Bills are 2-3.
• Tampa - Benched starter Josh Freeman was released this week.  Rookie 3rd round pick Mike Glennon who threw 2 interceptions in the 4th quarter to hand the game to Arizona.  2nd year HC Greg Schiano is widely rumored to be in danger of losing his job. The Bus are 0-4.
• Tennessee - Starter Jake Locker hurt his hip this week and is out for 4 to 6 weeks.  Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick will take over until he recovers.  3rd year HC Mike Munchak has a 15-17 record.  The Titans are 3-1.
• Jacksonville - Starter Blaine Gabbert and backup Chad Henne are both universally derided and the team is historically bad.  GM Dave Caldwell and HC Gus Bradley are in their first year.  The Jaguars are 0-4 and on a straight trajectory to 0-16 if they do not change something.
• Oakland - Starter Matt Flynn was benched for backup Terelle Pryor.  He showed some flashes of ability but is struggling.  GM Reggie McKenzie and HC Dennis Allen are both in their second year.  Oakland is 1-3.
• Cleveland - Starter Brandon Weedon was benched in favor of backup Brian Hoyer, who won 2 games and then blew his knee out.  Now they are back to Weedon, who 2 weeks ago they had decided was not their starter.  HC Rob Chudzinski is in his first year.  The Browns are 3-1 and in first place in their division.
• Jets - Sanchez is out for the season with a shoulder injury.  First round draft pick Geno Smith shows some talent but is making a lot of turnovers.  Rex Ryan probably gets fired with another losing season.  The Jets are 2-2.

There are 4 more games before the midpoint of the season and the trade deadline, so that list may grow.  QB's get hurt almost every week, especially running QB's, and there are a lot more running QB's in the league this year.  RGIII, Vick, Kap, Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, and Terelle Pryor all run the option and scramble frequently.  Each of them is just one hit away from a season or career-ending injury.

The shortage of QB options is also a factor.  At this point all well regarded NFL QBs are already on a team.  The QBs remaining on the free agent market all have perceived baggage.  Josh Freeman, Vince Young, and Tim are the only candidates who are healthy and have a successful track record as a starter.  Freeman is considered the most capable passer of the 3, but the Bucs episode will be a character red flag for any team considering him.  Assuming he goes first, that still leaves 6 teams needing a new QB.

So which team does Tim land with?  Look for 3 possible scenarios:

1. A desperate coach on a failing team with a terrible QB brings him in as a last ditch effort to win a few games.  Candidates: Jacksonville, Oakland, Tampa.
2. A team with a solid record brings him in as a temporary fill-in for an injured starter. Candidates: Buffalo, Tennesssee, Cleveland.
3. A team trades for Ryan Mallett, creating a roster opening for Tim to go back to the Patriots and develop under Belichick and Brady. Candidates: Cleveland.

Right now I think Buffalo is the best fit, mainly because they are the only team that has publicly stated their intention to hire a new QB.  Their offensive system is simple and run oriented, with a lot of read option plays.  Tim could step right in with minimal changes and be successful.  Their committment to EJ Manuel actually makes Tim less risky, because there is no need to commit to him as a long term solution.  They need a QB for 4-6 weeks and he wants to play. There is some talk of Freeman, but I don't see him being eager to accept a temp job.  Whatever they do, we'll know very soon, as they plan to make a move by next weekend.

Jacksonville is also a good fit, for all the reasons written in a thousand articles on the internet.  Bringing in a hometown hero with the leadership skills to inspire a team mired in Loserville and rally the fan base is a no brainer.  Hell, the crowd noise alone should be worth a touchdown or two for home games.  Unfortunately Dave Caldwell has categorically ruled Tebow out under any circumstances, which means his credibility and ego are at stake.  He is not going to come off that position without some pretty hard impetus from owner Shad Khan, and that does not yet appear to be the case.  However, that may change when the Jags are 0-8 at the break and staring at their schedule, wondering which game they might win to avoid going 0-16.  No GM or head coach wants "second team in NFL history to go 0-16" on his resume.  So give the Jags 4 more weeks to come around.

Many Tebow fans argue that Tim should not want to go to a team as poor as the Jaguars.  It is certainly high risk, but the payoff would be huge.  Tebow detractors have successfully revised Broncos history to conclude they were a great team who won despite Tim, not because of him.  Of course they ignore that the Broncos were 1-4 that year without him and 4-12 the previous year.  If Tim were to breathe a spark of life into the Jaguars and win even a few games, it would be impossible to argue that it was due to anything other than his play and presence.

Tampa is a definite maybe. The Bucs have a solid running game and defense, and there are a lot of Tebow Gator fans in Tampa.  Schiano is clearly struggling to keep his job.  For now, I don't see him giving up on Glennon.  But if the Bucs keep losing and Glennon continues to show the game is too big for him, I think Schiano will get desperate enough by mid-season to do anything.

I don't see Oakland, mainly because Tony Sparano is there.  Having been fired twice in circumstances involving Tim Tebow, I can't imagine him making a positive endorsement.  But Oakland is a good fit for Josh Freeman, so maybe they take him off the table. I think Tennessee rides out Locker's IR time with Fitzpatrick. Cleveland I also don't see as a good fit, mainly because their offensive system is a traditional pro-style passing attack.  However, Cleveland might also take Freeman off the table.

Finally, watch for interest in Mallett to pick up as the NFL trade deadline on Oct 29 approaches.  Mallett is widely regarded as the NFL backup with the most potential as a future starter.  Cleveland has long been rumored to be interested in him. The Pats would accept a 2nd round pick for Mallett, or possibly a 3rd round pick. If Mallett is traded, Tebow would be the obvious choice to bring back in as backup for the rest of the season.  Yes, he would not play, but in my personal opinion Tim would be better off developing for a year under McDaniels and Belichick.

I remain convinced that Tim will be back on a roster by the midpoint of the season, and very possibly starting. Once that happens, the ball will be in his hands. Literally.