Tuesday, October 8, 2013

The Nuclear Option - Tuesday Morning Update

Wow, lots of changes since I last wrote about The Nuclear Option just a few days ago.  Most of the immediate opportunities have dried up for now.   The Jets, Raiders, Browns, Bucs, and Titans are going to go with what they have.  The Bills are going with chewing gum, duct tape, and unknown free agents.  The Jags are still in a state of denial.  Mallett is still a trade prospect at the deadline.  Details:


On the List:

Jaguars:  They lost soundly to the Rams.  That was their best chance to win a game, and possibly their only chance to avoid 0-16.  They have no chance to win the next 3 games, so they are effectively 0-8 now.  They  are on the list but do not know it.  At some point that has to change.  Watch their bye week.

Off the List:

Vikings: They picked up Josh Freeman.  Where did that come from?  They weren't even ON the list.  At least they took Freeman off the market.  Will be interesting to see if they release Christian Ponder down the road.

Jets: Geno Smith played well to beat the Falcons on Monday night.  Rex is going to stick with him.  Might even get a new tattoo.

Titans:  Ryan Fitzpatrick played well to beat the undefeated Chiefs.  They should be comfortable with him until Locker recovers.

Raiders:  Terrelle Pryor played well to beat the Chargers.  Looks like they will stick with him and give him a chance to develop.  The Raiders released Matt Flynn and will probably sign Pat White as a backup QB.  As much as I want to want them to fail, I can't. I love the idea of two underrated mobile QB's getting a shot.  I have to think Dennis Allen's experience with Tebow at Denver gives him an appreciation of running QBs.

Watch:

Bills:  Their top priority is protecting their investment in EJ Manuel as a long term franchise QB, not winning the next few games to remain competitive for the playoffs.  How else to explain naming 3rd string practice squad QB Thad Lewis the starter for Sunday and bringing in Dennis Dixon?  Let's see what happens over next few weeks if their cast of undrafted practice squad QBs flounder and EJ's injury is slow to heal.

Buccaneers: Greg Schiano is sticking with Mike Glennon for now.  If the Bucs are still winless by the middle of the season, Schiano will get fired.  He may try a last ditch move to save his job.  The Bucs are not on the list now, but maybe in 2-3 weeks if Glennon stinks it up.

Texans: The coach benched Matt Schaub in the 4th quarter, but he's still the starter.  I can't see them giving up on him before the off season, but there seems to be a lot of noise to the contrary in Houston.

Browns: Weedon rose to the occasion against the Bills last Thursday, and there are no initial indications Cleveland will replace him.  However, we know they are not sold on him as the long term solution.  Based on GM Mike Lombardi's previous interest, they may still be a trade candidate for Ryan Mallett.

Patriots:  Their offense struggled in losing to the Bengals.  That may motivate Belichick to consider trading Mallett for some additional offensive weapons for Brady.  There are 21 days until the trade deadline.

The Injury Monster: Football is a violent, dangerous game, and quarterbacks are the most fragile players on the field not wearing soccer cleats.  Last week The Beast ate 3 starting QBs.  Who will it eat next?




30 comments:

  1. Thanks for the update, Ed. I saw today that the Pats have been awful in the red zone this year, w/only the Jags being worse. Also, FWIW, in the most recent pics of Tim on twitter, he seems to be less bulky-slimmer & less muscular. I'm assuming that's because House believes the upper-body weightlifting is hurting Tim's accuracy, as many others have believed, too.
    -Brooke

    ps Do you think the Jags are still truly in a state of denial, or that they just want out of Jax?

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  2. All good points. Tim would be a great asset in the red zone, and also a great asset for adverse weather situations like the Cincy game. I don't care how great Tom Brady is in the sunshine, the passing game is not the way to go in a driving rainstorm or snowstorm.

    If Tim is losing muscle, that is a good sign. Baseball pitchers avoid upper body bulk for a reason. There are a lot of little signs that might suggest Tim is on a Patriots-directed long-term plan to remake himself into a pocket passer. Probably wishful thinking on our part, but it would explain a lot.

    One more piece of speculation along those lines: I'm shocked that nobody has at least worked him out. The conventional explanation is that nobody wants the circus. Could it be that he has declined invitations because he is waiting on the Pats? He has certainly flown under the radar for the last month.

    Nobody knows what's in Khan's mind. I think him buying that soccer club in England is a rather flagrant indicator, though. But I seriously doubt Gus Bradley or Dave Caldwell signed up to tank the team. More likely they are just being stubborn or stupid. As the old saying goes, never attribute to malign intent that which can be explained by simple incompetence.

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    1. I have wondered if Tim had possibly declined some offers; especially the Jags. I think it would be foolish of him to play before he is really ready or to sign to a lose-lose situation.

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    2. I agree and wonder the same thing. Was very surprised the Bills or Raiders did not at least kick the tires. I doubt the Jags have made a serious offer for him at QB yet. More likely they would try to bring him in as fullback, tight end, and ticket salesman. Certainly he should decline that. They'll get desperate enough in a few more games that they might be receptive to him at QB. If not, then they deserve that 0-16 history book entry they are shooting for.

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  3. Yes, the reason I think the red zone problem could be significant is b/c that's something Tim could help them w/now. He wouldn't just be a backup taking up a roster spot.

    I agree about the losing muscle=good sign. For anyone interested, here are some of the pics I'm referring to:
    https://twitter.com/MarcoTebow/status/385791568893861888/photo/1
    https://twitter.com/3luismiguel/status/384504744829800450/photo/1

    There are more here:
    https://twitter.com/TimTebowGals/media

    It's hard to tell in those pics, but he seems to have gotten less bulky w/every week he's been in LA.

    Earlier this season, some team did show interest in Tim & asked him to change positions. We heard about that, so I assume we'd be hearing about some team being interested in Tim as a QB. There are so many follower-types in the NFL that I think his getting cut by Belichick-The Genius-was the final straw in their minds. They must be thinking 'if even Belichick & the guy who drafted Tebow can't fix him, he's got to be unfixable'. The only guys who don't seem to be followers like that-other than BB-are the Harbaughs.

    Thanks for that phrase at the end of your comment. It's great. -Brooke

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    1. Thanks. I find it a very useful maxim. Unfortunately I did it from memory and got it wrong. Here's the actual saying, also known as Hanlon's Razor:

      Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

      I'm going to put that at the top of my blog.

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  4. "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

    That's even better & thank you for identifying it. That sums up my attitude about the various Tebow NFL Blacklist conspiracy theories.

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  5. It's a slow news day so what the heck...

    A Cleveland rumor that made the rounds earlier this week was a bit intriguing. By way of background, a brief mention in an ESPN Cleveland article had a "source" claiming TT was flown in on Sunday night; and in the same article a "team source" stating that it had nothing to do with the Browns. Local radio buzzed a bit about it for a couple of days, to the point that another reporter acknowledged the rumor with a statement from a "league source" reiterating that his (still unconfirmed) visit was not related to the Browns.

    The original item is here, about halfway down under "Quarterback News": http://espncleveland.com/common/more.php?m=49&post_id=23321

    And the second reporter to refute a Browns connection was Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal. See @NateUlrichABJ for the tweet.

    Even in some contrived, dead-of-night scenario it's a bit hard to believe that he could swing through Cleveland so relatively unnoticed. That given, this is the first "sighting" that I'm aware of that the press went to the trouble of sourcing; and the reporter's choice of language is interesting: "was flown in." Hard to know what to make of it all in the absence of more substantial proof that he was there (or not). Thoughts?

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    1. After I posted I went to Twitter to learn that AP's son had passed. So, not a slow news day; a very sad news day :-( No disrespect intended.

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    2. Thank you for the info, Kathryn. I hadn't heard about Tim in Cleveland. And I can't imagine anyone thinking you meant any disrespect to AP. It's so tragic. -Brooke

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    3. Poor guy, 32 cities he can't go to without everyone going nuts. I recall there were no leaks of the Patriot signing until the night before, and no Tebow sightings in Boston. At this point, I think any team interested in meeting with him would do it on neutral ground.

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    4. What's interesting to me is that with this particular rumor we've got a journalist confident enough in his source to report that TT made the trip. As some random dude on Twitter put it - why would he just swing through Cleveland on a Sunday night if it's not related to the Browns? If it's true, which may never be confirmed, it bears taking into consideration Lombardi's close relationship with Belichick. Is it possible they quietly brought him in to kick the tires? Sure. Is it probable? No, but that won't stop my wishful thinking haha.

      Switching gears, I think the odds of a Buccaneers signing are dwindling. Schiano is really starting to get into hot water down in Tampa Bay as the players' union suspects that he's the one that leaked Freeman's drug program participation to the press. If that should be confirmed he'll no doubt be fired. It's hard to imagine him bringing on TT in the near term due to the Glennon factor; and if Schiano is fired it's even harder to imagine the interim coach being willing to make such a bold move.

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    5. I agree with your assessment of Tampa Bay, especially since Glennon is playing reasonably well and the Bucs might pull out their first victory today.

      I have decided to reserve my dwindling pool of wishful thinking for a return-to-the-Patriots scenario.

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  6. Update on Tim de-bulking. I guess those pics I linked to were deceptive, b/c in the latest 2 pics of him, he unfortunately still looks like the Incredible Hulk:

    https://twitter.com/Jacquesoy/status/389183465893011456/photo/1

    https://twitter.com/TimTebowGals/status/388692818946179072/photo/1

    -Brooke

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    1. I dunno, look leaners in the face. The guy will always be large and muscular, unless you starved him to death.

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    2. So glad to hear you say that. I'd also thought his face looked leaner. I do hope he's 'deflating' overall, too.

      Also, thank you for defending Lynn on twitter recently. With your background, many Tebow fans are inclined to respect you & value your opinion. So your being the one to stick up for her undoubtedly carried a lot of weight. -Brooke

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    3. One of the psychological traits Special Forces soldiers are screened for is the ability to cope with cognitive dissonance. Basically, it means that when confronted with facts that conflict with their beliefs, they adjust their understanding and continue to function at a high level. Many people are not capable of that mental flexibility. They require certainty and must find a way to dismiss any information that conflicts with their viewpoint.

      It is probably unavoidable that as the crowd of dedicated Tebow followers shrink, a larger percentage of the die-hards will be rooted in mental certainty. Many are unwilling to consider any suggestion that Tim might need to improve in some areas, or that his fans might need to reconsider their demeanor in some instances. The only acceptable explanation of the situation for them is that Tim is great and there is a conspiracy to prevent him from playing, presumably because of religious or cultural issues. Those people are naturally going to come in conflict with thinking fans who love and support Tim but recognize that he currently falls short in some areas.

      Speaking of conspiracies, I recenty received some tweets from a Tebow fan who urged me to look at some 911 truther info. Basically, he is of the belief that the WTC was zapped by an energy beam from a satellite that destroyed the buildings as the airplanes crashed into them. Presumably Elvis aimed the beams.

      I was rather harsh in my dismissal of this person, which I do not regret. As a result of 911 we fought in two wars, in which some of my friends died. While I generally favor an open mind, I am not interested in entertaining stupidity with no basis in rational thought. But it is distressing to me to consider the prospect that the shrinking pool of fervent Tebow supporters might start to coincide more with those of such a mindset.

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  7. "Many people are not capable of that mental flexibility. They require certainty and must find a way to dismiss any information that conflicts with their viewpoint."

    Thank you for confirming a disheartening reality that I've discovered myself recently. For many years, I've been making an effort to put my ego, emotions, & preconceptions aside, & look at things as objectively & logically as possible. I'm doing this b/c I think it's the only way to discern what's true/false & right/wrong. I still fail at it, of course. Yet, as I've gotten better at this, I've increasingly noticed how few people do this, or are even interested in doing this. I've even encountered many people who actively hate attempting to be logical & objective. I've become convinced that most people believe what they believe simply b/c they want to believe it, whether the facts support it or not. And, amongst Tebow fans, these types of people are the very ones to label anyone who merely looks at Tim's on-field strengths & weaknesses objectively as 'haters'. And the real Tebow haters exhibit this mentality by labelling anyone who has any belief in Tebow at all as 'crazies'.

    I saw that exchange w/the 9-11 conspiracy guy. I didn't think you were overly harsh.

    And speaking of hating logic & 9-11 conspiracies, I'm reminded of the most illogical 9-11 conspiracy theory I've ever heard. Apparently the French actress Marion Cotillard (sp?) said in an interview that she believes 9-11 was a conspiracy by the US govt. And the reason she believes they did it was this:

    The buildings were old.

    So, instead of simply having planned implosions of these 'old' buildings (which, btw, weren't nearly as old as many buildings in & around Paris), according to Marion, the US govt supposedly decided to just fake this terrorist attack which cost thousands of people their lives on 9-11, & led to 2 wars which cost thousands of more people's lives, all so they could take down 3 old buildings.

    Insane.

    -Brooke

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    1. And then there's this:
      http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/Somebody-in-Tampa-wants-Tebow.html

      Yes, right when the Bucs are having an MRSA outbreak & their head coach is about to get fired, that's when it's a good time for Tim to be sent to Tampa. Are these people *&%^#$@# NUTS?!

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    2. Unfortunately, Tim is probably not going to go to a good situation. Crappy situations are about the only options he has left. Whether he goes to Tampa, Jax, or another floundering team yet to be identified, it will be up to him and his leadership skills to salvage it.

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    3. It's not really the situation that bothers me so much as the interventionism. This is Tim's life's dream, not mine or the people who paid for that plane (unless, of course, it was Tim who paid for that plane, which I doubt). This constant meddling in someone else's life's dream, as though they know what's best for him, just annoys me. This interventionism also shows a lack of belief in Tim's skills. They're making it seem like even his own fans believe that Tim can't get a job in the NFL again w/out some of his fans making pests of themselves. Oh, but that's right. The same kind of people who pull these stunts are probably also the ones who believe in the Tebow NFL Blacklist. So, of course, they *have* to intervene against the evil conspirators. *bangs head against wall*

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    4. Did you know that early on in the season Dan Marino tweeted "Why not Tebow?" in the context of replacing Gabbert? Dan Marino. That single tweet carried more weight than a squadron of airplane banners, yet it got buried by all the circus mayhem. If fans really want to help Tebow out, they'll start respecting his efforts to maintain a low profile and do the same.

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    5. "Did you know that early on in the season Dan Marino tweeted "Why not Tebow?" in the context of replacing Gabbert? Dan Marino. That single tweet carried more weight than a squadron of airplane banners, yet it got buried by all the circus mayhem. If fans really want to help Tebow out, they'll start respecting his efforts to maintain a low profile and do the same. "

      Wow. No, I did not know that & I follow Tebow news pretty closely. And I totally agree about just letting Tim fulfill his dream his way & butting out. But try getting that through the thick persecution-complexed skulls of the interventionists.

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    6. I don't have any problem with the planes and such. I do not believe they are a major factor in the decision to bring Tim in. A minor one, yes, but not a major one. The media has been a much bigger factor, since they are harder to ignore.

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    7. But that's exactly my point. At a time when the media could have been debating Marino's remark, and entertaining the possibility that prevailing wisdom is flawed, they were instead handed a circus on a platter to report on. What's going to draw more page views? Tebow might be able to get the job done after all, or Tebow has crazy fans? They'll go with the latter every time.

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    8. "But that's exactly my point. At a time when the media could have been debating Marino's remark, and entertaining the possibility that prevailing wisdom is flawed, they were instead handed a circus on a platter to report on. What's going to draw more page views? Tebow might be able to get the job done after all, or Tebow has crazy fans? They'll go with the latter every time."

      ITA & well said, Kathryn.-Brooke

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  8. Once upon a time, the purpose of higher education was to enable critical thought. Unfortunately, most universities have become trade schools. Even those who learn analytical thought too often employ it only to support positions they already hold.

    I personally had an epiphany about 10 years ago, when I learned to scrutinize the information that supports my beliefs harder than the facts that conflict with my beliefs. Paradoxically, this led to me having a higher confidence that my beliefs and conclusions were valid.

    My personal viewpoint of Tim Tebow can be summed up as this: He is a superb football player and a once-in-a-generation leader who can be a Hall of Fame quarterback if he improves his passing skills, which are not adequate for the NFL right now.

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    1. "I personally had an epiphany about 10 years ago, when I learned to scrutinize the information that supports my beliefs harder than the facts that conflict with my beliefs. Paradoxically, this led to me having a higher confidence that my beliefs and conclusions were valid."

      I wish I could say the same. I've done a complete 180 on some of my beliefs since adopting this objectivity crusade.

      I completely agree w/your assessment of Tebow. -Brooke

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