Tebow team tracker: end of preseason

A few weeks ago I tried to itemize possible Teams for Tebow headed into training camp.  With preseason games over and the regular season about to start, let's see where things stand, and how some of my predictions played out.

Tebow to the Rams?

By now you probably know that the Rams lost starting QB Sam Bradford to a season-ending knee injury.  The news just leaked out a few hours ago, and speculation has already started about a replacement.  Predictably, "sign Tebow" tweets and blog posts have started to appear, along with the usual scornful responses.

I have held back from getting excited at previous openings, but this might be the right time to watch closely.  The Rams' circumstances offer 4 good reasons to make a Tebow redemption shot possible:

Tebow, EJ, and the Sanchize Effect

In the wake of a particularly egregious performance by all 3 of the Bills quarterbacks on roster, many fans are calling for Tebow to be brought in as a backup.

Tim would be a very good system fit at Buffalo, and has a similar playing style to EJ.  He is clearly better than Jeff Tuel or Thad Lewis by any objective or subjective standard.  Regardless of this, it is extremely unlikely that the Bills will consider signing Tim Tebow in the first half of the season.  The reason is the Sanchize Effect.

Possible Teams for Tebow - 2014 Preseason Analysis

Like many of you, I am dumbstruck that Tim Tebow may not get another chance in the NFL.  However, I have tried to keep the faith and not worry too much.  As General Patton said, "never take counsel of your fears".

Personally, I believe he will get one last shot.  I believe this mainly because he has a strong network of mentors and very influential agents.  They would have told him not to waste his time and money training if he did not have at least a reasonable chance of getting on a roster somewhere. But where?

Let's see this every day!

Note the writing on the wall behind him. #Perseverance Sending a message!

Tebow fans - what to watch for on draft night

At this point it is awfully hard to predict where Tim Tebow might get another shot. Evidently nobody is willing to commit to him as a starter or primary backup. His best hope is to get into training camp as a 3rd stringer and hope his improved throwing motion impresses. Coaches love training camp competition, and Tim is nothing if not a competitor.

There are not a lot of openings right now, as the QB roster tracker shows. Any team looking to the free agent market has already moved. The remaining QB-needy teams are counting on the draft.

However, there are more needy teams than there are highly regarded QB prospects. Some teams will lose the game of musical chairs and wind up with a low rated pick or no QB picks. Even those who draft a highly rated QB face risk; there are no sure things this year.

With that in mind, here are some things to watch for that might signal an opportunity for Tim:

NFL Quarterback Tracker

Current Roster

teams in red are reportedly interested in drafting a QB

Team	Starter	Backup	Other
Arizona Cardinals	Carson Palmer	Drew Stanton, Logan Thomas	Ryan Lindley
Atlanta Falcons	Matt Ryan	Dominique Davis	Sean Renfree
Baltimore Ravens	Joe Flacco	Tyrod Taylor	Keith Wenning
Buffalo Bills	EJ Manuel	Thad Lewis	Jeff Tuel
Carolina Panthers	Cam Newton	Derek Anderson	Joe Webb
Chicago Bears	Jay Cutler	Jordan Palmer, David Fales	Jerrod Johnson
Cincinnati Bengals	Andy Dalton	Jason Campbell, AJ McCarron	Josh Johnson
Cleveland Browns	Johnny Manziel	Brian Hoyer	Alex Tanney, Vince Young, Tyler Thigpen
Dallas Cowboys	Tony Romo	Kyle Orton	Brandon Weeden, Caleb Hanie
Denver Broncos	Peyton Manning	Brock Osweiler	Zac Dysert
Detroit Lions	Matthew Stafford	Kellen Moore	Dan Orlovsky
Green Bay Packers	Aaron Rodgers	Matt Flynn	Scott Tolzein
Houston Texans	Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum	Tom Savage	TJ Yates
Indianapolis Colts	Andrew Luck	Matt Hasselbeck
Jacksonville Jaguars	Blake Bortles	Chad Henne	Ricky Stanzi, Matt Scott
Kansas City Chiefs	Alex Smith	Chase Daniel, Aaron Murray	Tyler Bray
Miami Dolphins	Ryan Tannehill	Matt Moore	Pat Devlin, Jordan Rodgers
Minnesota Vikings	Teddy Bridgewater	Matt Cassel	Christian Ponder
New England Patriots	Tom Brady	Ryan Mallett	Jimmy Garoppolo
New Orleans Saints	Drew Brees	Luke McKown	Ryan Griffin
New York Giants	Eli Manning	Josh Freeman	Curtis Painter, Ryan Nassib
New York Jets	Geno Smith	Michael Vick, Tajh Boyd	Matt Simms
Oakland Raiders	Matt Schaub, Derek Carr	Matt McGloin	Trent Edwards
Philadelphia Eagles	Nick Foles	Mark Sanchez	Matt Barkley
Pittsburgh Steelers	Ben Roethlisberger	Landry Jones	Bruce Gradowski
San Diego Chargers	Philip Rivers	Kellen Clemens	Brad Sorensen
San Francisco 49ers	Colin Kaepernick	Blaine Gabbert
Seattle Seahawks	Russell Wilson	Tarvaris Jackson	Terrelle Pryor, BJ Daniels
St. Louis Rams	Sam Bradford	Shaun Hill, Garrett Gilbert	Austin Davis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Josh McCown	Mike Glennon	Mike Kafka
Tennessee Titans	Jake Locker	Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger	Tyler Wilson
Washington Redskins	Robert Griffin III	Kirk Cousins	Colt McCoy

Available

Free Agents

Tim Tebow

Seneca Wallace

Rex Grossman

Kevin Kolb

Rusty Smith

David Gerrard

Zac Robinson

Brady Quinn

Draft Picks	Projected	Taken	By
Johnny Manziel	1	1	Cleveland
Blake Bortles	1	1	Jacksonville
Teddy Bridgewater	1	1	Minnesota
Derek Carr	1-2	2	Oakland
Jimmy Garapolo	2	2	New England
Logan Thomas	5-6	4	Arizona
Tom Savage	2	4	Houston
Aaron Murray	4	5	Kansas City
AJ McCarron	4	5	Cincinnati
Zack Mettenberger	3-4	6	Tennessee
David Fales	6	6	Chicago
Keith Wenning	6-7	6	Baltimore
Tajh Boyd	7	6	New York Jets
Garrett Gilbert	np	6	St Louis

Analysis

There are 4 teams with only 2 QBs on roster: New England, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Baltimore. Each of these teams has a well-established starter that the team is fully committed to. Consequently, none of these teams are rumored to be overly interested in drafting a QB this year. No team goes into training camp with just 2 QBs. That means that each of these teams is likely to pick up at least one free agent QB between now and mid-June.

Teams for Tebow

With 6 weeks until the NFL draft, most teams are posturing to fill their biggest needs.  No need is bigger than quarterback, so those teams with an unsettled situation at that position are focused on fixing it.  Their actions can give some insight into where Tim Tebow might have a shot at a roster spot going into training camp.  As Yogi Berra said, "predictions are hard, especially about the future".  My prediction: the Browns and Patriots are Tim's best and perhaps only shots.

Should Tim Tebow play in A11?

Right from the start, I have been opposed to Tim's involvement in the new A11 football league. I viewed it as a sideshow, a wannabe league for players not good enough for the NFL.  That is probably still true. However, I find myself warming to the idea of Tim playing in the inaugural exhibition games this May and June.

Tebow to the Browns?

At this point trying to pick a spot for Tebow to play seems like a fools errand.  I wrote thousands of words last season analyzing various scenarios where he might get picked up.  None of them happened, and in retrospect it all seems like such wishful thinking.  But I am a diehard fan of Tim Tebow, and diehard fans don't give up.  Ever. In that respect we are no different than diehard fans of any of the 32 NFL teams.  We have just chosen to assign our loyalty based on character rather than geography.  Our loyalty is freely given and fiercely held, and anyone who chooses to mock it can kiss my 4th point of contact.  (Bonus points if you know where that reference came from without Googling it)


So with that said, I do think conditions might be lining up for an opportunity with the Browns.  The following key elements are in place:

1. A new head coach, Mike Pettine, who knows Tim and is on the record saying good things about him.
2. A new offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, who loves the read option and mobile quarterbacks.
3. A new Owner, Jimmy Haslam, who claims to feel a strong sense of duty to his fan base.
4. A fan base that calls their team the "Factory of Sadness" and desperately needs a dose of hope.

Quick Hits on "The Book of Tebow"

By now, any Tebow fan has read the Sports Illustrated longform article The Book of Tebow.  Overall I thought it was a well crafted and thoughtful article.  Here are some aspects of the article that I liked or disliked:

The Nuclear Option - Final Update

This will be the last update.  I don't see any more predictable scenarios emerging for Tim Tebow to get signed during this season.  If something happens, it will be from somewhere out of the blue.

Time is the fundamental problem.  It would take at least two or three weeks for a team to integrate Tim into their system and get any kind of payoff on his skills.  That applies for any QB, as the Vikings demonstrated with Josh Freeman, but especially for someone with an unconventional skillset like Tim.  But there are only 6 or 7 games left for most teams.  That's not enough time to invest 2 or 3 games on a solution that may or may not work.  In that situation, most teams will go with a QB that has been practicing with them and knows their system, regardless of how bad he is.   

The Nuclear Option - Week 9 Update

The NFL has reached the midpoint of the season.  Every team has played at least 8 games.   What possible opportunities does Tebow have?

On the List

• Jaguars: as I wrote last week, the Jaguars have run out of football reasons not to sign Tebow.  Unfortunately the time to sign him was last week, before their bye.  It's probably not going to happen, mainly because GM Dave Caldwell doesn't seem like the guy who will voluntarily eat his words.

• Rams: Kellen Clemens wasn't that bad in either game he played, but he is not going to win games for the team.  Coach Fisher must realize his season is gone unless he does something drastic.  The Rams won't beat the Colts next week regardless of who plays, but after that they have a bye week.  If it doesn't happen then, it's probably not going to.

The Nuclear Option - Post Trade Deadline

So much for the power of wishful thinking.  My furtive hopes of a Mallett trade have been dashed.  With that said, here's my analysis on opportunities for Tebow right now:

On the List

• Jaguars:  As I wrote yesterday, Jacksonville has run out of football reasons to avoid Tebow.  If they genuinely want to win games, they will sign him, even if only as a red zone battering ram.  Unfortunately, I am increasingly convinced that GM Dave Caldwell believes his job is to understand the value of losing.  If that is the case, signing Tebow is the worst thing he could do, because Tim may win just enough games to lose the number one draft pick.  If it is going to happen, this is the week.

• Rams:  Did you watch the last 4 seconds of Monday Night Football last night?  Enough said.  Give Jimbo Fisher two more games to confim that Kellen Clemens ain't got it, then see what he does on bye week.

The Jaguars have run out of football reasons to not sign Tim Tebow

Florida Times-Union sportswriter Gene Frenette wrote a column last December titled Marketing Not Good Reason to Sign Tebow. He argued that Tebow's popularity in Jacksonville was a bad reason to bring him to the Jaguars:

The Jaguars should only go after (Tebow) if they have a specific role in mind and believe he can help them win.  Nothing else matters.

Frenette is right.  Successful NFL franchises make personnel decisions based on football reasons.  Signing Tebow for ticket and jersey sales would do a disservice to the Jaguars, the fans, and Tebow.  If the Jaguars do not have a good football reason to bring him to Jacksonville, they should not bring him here.

However, the flip side of this premise is equally true.  The decision not to sign Tebow should also be based solely on football reasons.  If Tebow can help the Jaguars win, then nothing else matters.

Why has Tim Tebow not been hired yet?

A while ago I proposed The Nuclear Option: that Tim Tebow should start the 2013 season not on a roster rather than accepting a backup position.  My theory: several starting quarterbacks would be be injured or benched during the first half of the season.  Their backups would prove to be inadequate, creating openings for new starters.  If Tim were on a roster as a backup, he would be unavailable to fill those positions.

So far, everything is proceeding as I have foreseen (bonus points if you can name that movie).  The season is not even half over, and 9 teams do not have the same starting QB they began the season with:

• Rams: lost Sam Bradford to season-ending knee injury. Backup Kellen Clemens starting.
• Browns: benched Brandon Weeden, then lost Brian Hoyer to season-ending knee injury. 3rd stringer Jason Campbell starting.
• Bucs: benched and released Josh Freeman. Rookie backup Mike Glennon starting.
• Jaguars:  Blaine Gabbert out for several weeks with injury; backup Chad Henne starting.  
• Vikings: benched Christian Ponder for Josh Freeman.  Freman out with concussion so Ponder starts again.
• Bills: EJ Manuel out for 6 to 8 weeks with knee injury.  Backup Thad Lewis starting.
• Texans: Matt Schaub out with ankle injury.  Undrafted rookie backup Case Keenum starting.
• Bears: Jay Cutler out for 4 weeks with groin tear.  Backup Josh McCown starting.
• Eagles: Vick out for several weeks for injury.  Backup Nick Foles is out with a concussion.  Third stringer Matt Barkley starts if both are out.

But one event has not unfolded as I had foreseen:  nobody has hired Tim Tebow yet.  WTF?

The Nuclear Option - Week 7 update

The trade deadline in 9 days effectively closes the door on major roster improvements. The odds of obtaining a starting-caliber player diminish greatly after then.  For the rest of the season, coaches are stuck with the players they have now, plus any left-over free agents they can scrounge up.

With that in mind, let's take a look at potential opportunities for Tebow:

The Nuclear Option - Week 6 update

Some development since last week. No need to wait for Monday night's game, as neither Luck nor Rivers is going anywhere. Let's take a look at potential opportunities for Tebow:

The Nuclear Option - Tuesday Morning Update

Wow, lots of changes since I last wrote about The Nuclear Option just a few days ago.  Most of the immediate opportunities have dried up for now.   The Jets, Raiders, Browns, Bucs, and Titans are going to go with what they have.  The Bills are going with chewing gum, duct tape, and unknown free agents.  The Jags are still in a state of denial.  Mallett is still a trade prospect at the deadline.  Details:

The Nuclear Option plays out

Last spring, in a blog post titled The Nuclear Option, I argued that Tim Tebow would be better to start this season not on an NFL roster.  I based my premise on the following assumptions:

1. No team would offer Tim a fair shot at competing for a starting position.
2. As a backup, he risked a repeat of the Jets debacle.
3. Several teams would lose their starting QB to injuries in the first half of the season.
4. Several more teams would discover their hoped-for starting QB stunk.
5. By midseason, several teams would be looking for a QB to salvage their season.
6. A desperate coach trying to save his job might be willing to take the risk with Tim.
7. If Tim was on another roster, he would be unavailable to take that opportunity to play.

So now we are 1/4 of the way through the season, and  the nuclear scenario has played out even faster than expected.  Below is a list of NFL teams whose franchise QB plans have already self destructed: