It is hard for Tebow fans to take an objective view of why the Patriots cut him. Tim's future has become more of an emotional issue than a rational one for us. To get through the noise, we must learn to see the decision from Bill Belichick's point of view.
1. Belichick only cares about one thing: winning the Superbowl. He has 5 appearances and 3 wins. Only Don Shula has more appearances. Only Chuck Noll has more wins. One more ring puts him in the rarest of company. Tom Brady needs one more ring to tie Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw for most wins ever.
2. BB does not believe he needs a 3rd QB to win the Superbowl. He has only carried 2 QBs in 3 of the last 4 years. He only needs a 3rd QB if the first two are questionable, which is not the case this year.
3. BB does believe he needs depth on his roster at critical positions that are subject to more wear and tear. He also recognizes that the most talent is available now, right after the end-of-camp cuts. Over time, currently free players will match up with teams in need, and the pool of unsigned talent will shrink. Injuries in the season will accelerate this process.
4. The roster cap of 53 players leaves little room for flexibility. There are 11 players on offense and defense. To carry a 1st and 2nd team requires 44 roster spots. Adding a placekicker, punter, and longsnapper brings the total to 47 players. Running backs, wide receivers, and slot receivers have very high rates of injury during the season, so teams carry a 3rd player at each position, and usually a 4th running back. That brings the total to 50 roster spots necessary for minimum acceptable depth. That gives the team at most 3 roster spots to play with.
5. As much as he would like to keep a particular player on the roster to develop for future years, securing a player who can help win the Superbowl this year takes precedence. In deciding how to allocate those last 3 positions, Belichick must choose between 4 areas of need: extra offensive linemen, extra defensive players, special teams, or developmental players.
When you look at the cold, hard facts from Belichick's point of view, it is clear he made the choice that made the most sense from a standpoint of winning the Superbowl this year. He opted to add depth on his defense, ensuring he would have enough quality players to last thru the season and into the playoffs. The Pats defense was a weakness last year that hurt them in the playoffs, and he choose to bolster positions where strength was questionable. The extra players chosen also had proven performance on special teams.
That does not mean he thinks Tebow stinks or has no place on the team in the future. Like any pro, Belichick always hedges his bets for this year and lays the groundwork for next year. That is what bringing Tebow to camp was always about. If he can do that, and not expend a roster slot that might hurt his chances this year, he will do so.
Postscript: one more tidbit to consider ... the Pats are apparently keeping the last few slots open as a lilypad to bring prospects in for quick tryouts. Today they cut two players who they had just signed to the roster in the last 4 days. This "revolving door" use of roster spots is all part of the team maximizing their potential to snatch up recently cut talent. Who knows how long it will last ... or what they will do once they finally settle down?
Also, it is interesting to note that Tim has been laying low since his release. No interviews, no appearances, no sightings with a QB coach; just a quick tweet of appreciation and then crickets. The cynic in me almost suspects a conspiracy. Perhaps Tim knows more than we do? That may be really wishful thinking, but coupled with the cryptic comments from Kraft and Co, it does makes me go "Hmmm".
Fantastic, as always. And there's one more very important element to this that you covered in an earlier post: Belichick knows from Tim having languished in free agency for weeks (& also from only 2 teams being seriously interested in trading for him in 3/12) that no other team wants him. As the season progresses, other teams will *need* Tim-due to their QBs playing badly &/or getting injured-but no other team seems to actually *want* Tim to develop him. So Bill's free to cut Tim, even if he has the long-term intent of 'fixing' him, b/c he knows Tim's most likely either not going anywhere, or at least not going anywhere else long-term. The only thing that makes me nervous is Bill seemingly not believing in Tebow as much as Josh does. But then Bill isn't the type to consider many-if any-players indispensable anyway. And I am still wondering about the mixed signals Belichick sent out when he first said Tebow could be brought back, and then said in the radio interview that it didn't work out for Tim in NE, but might work out somewhere else. I'm hoping it's just typical Belichick subterfuge, like putting every major NE player on the injured list each week.
ReplyDeleteBB knowing Tim would be available later in the year was probably a key consideration in releasing him now.
ReplyDeleteThis sounds logical but it really makes me question why they bothered in the first place. Many said in the beginning that they didn't need Tim unless he was a long term project. Cutting him only makes it seem like he isn't good enough to develop thus further damaging his reputation. I believe in Tim but with any job you need exposure to the task you're reponsible for completing. He knows the fundamentals but he needs practice in a team environment. There's only so much he can do solo.
ReplyDeleteGreat insightful article, Ed ... all of it makes absolute sense logically ... but ... if depth is so important at other positions besides QB, why do some teams carry 3 and even 4 QBs and they still have to comply with 53 man restriction?
ReplyDeleteHere's what I just can't reconcile in my mind logically, setting emotion aside for the moment:
From the very beginning of Tim's arrival, they had Jerseys done and on the shelves. Robert Kraft appears on Mike & Mike and 'presents' greeny with his own Tebow Patriot #5 jersey.
There's no way I'm gonna believe that Tim was brought in to challenge Ryan Mallet for the Backup job and that was it. There was a plan and it was long-term to develop Tim. No one who comes to camp 'new' to the team, the offense, the playbook, etc., is going to be able to master all of it in 3 months. And Tim is dyslexic so that presents another issue. Also, BB & Co. had to know that Tim's accuracy was an issue as well as his decision-making process, yet they brought him in anyway. Why? Just because of Josh McD? Can't buy that either. If they expected Tim to suddenly emerge as a terrific pocket passer in the Brady Offense, they were delusional, and I know that's not the case. So, why did they put Tim in the very first preseason game with a read option offense and then abandon it for the remainder of the games? What were they expecting? And why?
If they keep only 2 QBs on roster, then why bring Tim in in the first place? To replace Mallet as a pocket passing backup? No way ... so, if there was no intention to replace Mallet with Tim, then they had to know all along that they wouldn't keep 3 QBs, so why recruit Tim at all? Seems a bit cruel to me ... or maybe it was just done on a 'whim' because of the comment that got out to social media that BB 'hated' Tebow and he just wanted to quell those rumors ...
I believe Kraft genuinely likes Tim and would have loved to have him on the team ... but if you're the owner and you really want something, I can't believe he would be refused.
Anyway, that's just my 2 cents for what it's worth. All of this is still a puzzle for me and I just feel so badly for Tim coming with such great hopes only to have them dashed yet again.
14 teams only carry 2 QBs on their roster. Most of them carry a 3rd on the practice squad, which does not count against the 53 player limit.
DeleteSome teams carry 3 because they can't stomach the risk. Others carry 3 or even 4 because their #1 or #2 is questionable and they want options.
Belichick has carried 3 in the past, but lately he seems to lean towards 2. We know he is supremely confident in Brady, and reportedly has a lot of confidence in Mallet, so there's no reason for him to feel he needs more than 2 this year.
“If they keep only 2 QBs on roster, then why bring Tim in in the first place? To replace Mallet as a pocket passing backup? No way ... so, if there was no intention to replace Mallet with Tim, then they had to know all along that they wouldn't keep 3 QBs, so why recruit Tim at all?”
DeleteYou are assuming all the initiative and plans were on the Patriot side, yet we know Steve Young encouraged Tim to take a step back and sit a spell behind one of the great QBs and Jason Cole in the spring reported Tim was pursuing such a position.
Great post!
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said : "Seems a bit cruel to me ... or maybe it was just done on a 'whim' because of the comment that got out to social media that BB 'hated' Tebow and he just wanted to quell those rumors ..."
ReplyDeleteAccording to Ed Werder of ESPN, signing Tim wasn't a whim at all. The Pats had talked to Tim since at least the time he was cut, & possibly even when he was trade bait, by NY. Werder said that the Pats had told Tim they were interested in signing him, but Tim first had to prove to them he could maintain a low profile for at least a few weeks before they'd consider signing him (they wanted to avoid 'the circus'). Tim did maintain a low profile, so after a few weeks of that, they signed him.
Bill Belichick does nothing on a whim. Period. The man is a cyborg.
DeleteWithout a doubt. I can tell you exactly when we will factually know what BB is going to do...when he does it.
DeleteThe sports media didn't even know Gronk was on the roster rather than the much reported 'on the PUP list' until BB and the Pats released their roster. I call him Hannibal Bellichick. :)
“According to Ed Werder of ESPN, signing Tim wasn't a whim at all. The Pats had talked to Tim since at least the time he was cut, & possibly even when he was trade bait, by NY. Werder said that the Pats had told Tim they were interested in signing him, but Tim first had to prove to them he could maintain a low profile for at least a few weeks before they'd consider signing him (they wanted to avoid 'the circus'). Tim did maintain a low profile, so after a few weeks of that, they signed him.”
DeleteI had heard this in the rumor mill but did not know the source – and in that light, I wondered if possibly, Belichick did not like all the time Tim spent signing autographs (although I would hope that someone would have just told Tim if that was the case). Plus, there were the Tebow fans chanting for him at the away games, etc.
I doubt they had a problem with his autograph sessions. If fact, in a few short weeks he'd built a rapport with the fans and beat writers that any organization would covet. He was fitting in nicely, in other words. With that said, it could be that one of the tests of preseason / camp was to see how well they could manage the so-called 'circus,' and whether he could acquit himself to their satisfaction vis a vi press demands.
DeleteHey Ed, watch it! I'm objective and more rational than Wrecks Ryan. Ok ok, that's not saying much but...
ReplyDeleteAnd you just had to bring up emotional huh? Whateva. Yeah I'm emotional about Tim. He's hasn't gotten and isn't getting the respect given to NFL QBs of lesser skills. That ticks me off. That guy has gotten me off my seat and yelling with excitement more than any football player eva. Admittedly I am a college football enthusiast and a Gator one to boot, but the times I've watched Tim playing in the NFL, the same thing happened to me.
Aside from your glaring errors about me that I've pointed out, I really like this Op-Ed. It will make a good addition to our 'Featured Op-Ed Articles' forum ( http://timtebowfans.forumotion.net/portal ). (It's not there this second but it will be in minutes).
Thanks for posting it.