Time is the fundamental problem. It would take at least two or three weeks for a team to integrate Tim into their system and get any kind of payoff on his skills. That applies for any QB, as the Vikings demonstrated with Josh Freeman, but especially for someone with an unconventional skillset like Tim. But there are only 6 or 7 games left for most teams. That's not enough time to invest 2 or 3 games on a solution that may or may not work. In that situation, most teams will go with a QB that has been practicing with them and knows their system, regardless of how bad he is.
Here's my last take on the list of opportunities for Tim:
On the List
- Titans: this one is a stretch, but it's the only possibility I can see. Jake Locker is out for the season. Tennessee has lost every game that backup Ryan Fitzpatrick has played more than a half in. The Titans were in the hunt for a playoff spot until they lost to the Jaguars. Head Coach Mike Munchak is reportedly on the hot seat. They play the Colts this Thursday, and then have a 10 day break. If Fitzpatrick stinks it up against the Colts, Munchak might just get desperate and take a flyer. Tebow and Chris Johnson could make for a scary read option attack, and the plays are already installed.
Off the List
- Jaguars: They have been walking a fine line between the 2011 Colts and the 2008 Lions. By winning one game, they guaranteed they won't be the Lions. Going 1-15 is the perfect outcome for them; they avoid the humiliation of a winless season, but are assured of getting first shot at their new franchise QB, just like Indy with Andrew Luck. The last thing Caldwell wants at this point is to accidentally win a few more games and screw that up, especially with Tampa Bay still winless.
- Rams: If Clemens had stunk it up against the Colts, Fisher might have gotten desperate. Instead, the Rams destroyed Indy and Clemens locked himself in for the rest of the season.
- Packers: just signed Matt Flynn. Their system was never a good fit for Tim.
- Everyone Else: nothing there.
- Injury Monster: at this point in the season, any team that loses their starter is going to go with their backup, and pad their QB depth chart with journeymen for insurance.
I hate the word, "final"....especially when it has anything to do with TimTebow's NFL career. :'( But, I am becoming more of a realist, than an optimist. I hate saying that. I could b a r e l y type it out.
ReplyDeleteNext year, Ed?? Patriots??
Oh! Hey! There's that optimist I thought I'd put to bed!
Yes, I think there is a next year. It is still possible that Tebow is on a JMD-directed self-improvement plan, with the intent of putting him back on the Pats roster for OTAs. Remember that off-season NFL rosters can be 90 players.
DeleteFailing that, he's got to keep throwing and throwing and throwing until he burns that new motion into muscle memory. There will be opportunities in the off-season for teams to scout him on the sly. If he convinces someone that his accuracy is better and his release faster, he might get an invite to training camp next season to try again.
Thanks for the update Ed. Yours is the best blog I have come across on the internet. It seems like we may have underestimated the level of antipathy that exists towards Tim in the front offices & on coaching staffs around the league. As a lifelong football fan I am insulted by the league's dismissive attitude towards Tim..Unconventional or not he has earned the right by his won loss record on the field of play to have been given an opportunity to start somewhere this year..Especially with so many teams searching for Quarterbacks. It is hard for me to believe that not one team in the league (with the exception of the Pats) sees the same abilities in Tim as a quarteback as we do.
DeleteI would be interested in knowing your opinion on two things.
1) Did you take Tim's signing on with this new agent as a sign he thinks his playing days might be over???
2) Have you given up on the Tim to the Pats theory?? What do you think the Pats would do if the injury monster visited New England???
Thanks very much. I don't buy the blacklist theory, but I am at a loss to explain why nobody will touch him under any circumstances. I wonder if there may be a battle of wills going on, with Tim being pressured to change positions and refusing.
DeleteWRT your questions:
1. No I don't. Tim had separate agents for his on-field and off-field activities. Independent of his career challenges, it would be a logical business move to consolidate his representation under one firm. I can think of several justifications having nothing to do with him 'giving up'. He might want an agency that can make sure his off-field appearances support his playing career instead of interviewing with it.
2. I have not given up on the Patriots theory, but I have seen no evidence to support it. I do think that if TFB or Mallett were hurt at this point in the season, they would bring in Tim as backup. The Pats have a complex offensive system and Tim is the only QB on the market who has spent time on it.
I'm going to amend my list of possibles to include the Raiders. If Pryor's knee is worse than expected, they will have to do something. They have an impatient owner and a shaky head coach. Dennis Allen knows Tim from Denver and hopefully respects his good qualities.
ReplyDeleteRaiders with Sparano?
DeleteYeah, good point. Forgot about that. Scratch the Raiders.
DeleteHi Ed: Things seem awfully quiet lately on the Tebow front. Is there anything going on behind the scenes you are aware of?? I like the newspaper & billboard Ads that have gone up around Jacksonville recently although I am not sure if it does more harm than good to Tim's chances around the league by adding to the circus reputation. At least it may serve as an irritant to the Jags. Since they have no desire to do whats right and make Tim their franchise Quarterback.
ReplyDeleteI have heard nothing. I cannot think of a probable scenario that results in Tim getting signed at this point in the season. Something unforeseen and therefore unpredicable would have to occur. I think there is zero chance of the Jaguars signing him unless something truly bizarre occurs. If Gabbert and Henne collided during warmups and each blew a knee, that MIGHT do it.
DeleteI still secretly hope that Tim is an off-the-roster Bill Belichick redshirt and will rejoin the Patriots next spring with a new and improved throwing motion. Unfortunately, my hope is based solely on wishful thinking at this point. Certain incongruous observations might support such an explanation, but accepting them all requires a level of conspiratorial suspicion usually reserved for Kennedy assassination theories.
Thats funny. Conspiracy theories aside. What is your opinion on the billboards & newspaper ads around Jacksonville??? You are more optomistic than I am I don't think they would sign him even if Henne & Gabbert were to collide but do you think they help or hurt Tim's chances around the league?? I believe the red shirt theory is still plausible & sadly I believe it is our only hope at this point for this year or next.
ReplyDeleteI think they neither help nor hurt. Teams have made up their mind about the circus, and the billboards do not change that perception one way or the other. I think the only thing that changes Tim's prospects is a significant demonstrated improvement in his throwing accuracy and release quickness. I have my fingers crossed that Tom House can pull this off and that this forced hiatus will ultimately save Tim's career.
DeleteAlong those lines, I saw some photos of him a few days ago and his arms looked far less muscular than in previous photos. That's a great sign.